Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
Pools are not so common as most outsiders believe. There are many
difficulties and complications to be overcome before a pool can be
formed, held together, and operated successfully, as we had ample
opportunity to observe not long ago in the case of Hocking Coal &
Iron. But if a definite pool exists in any stock, its operations are
practically a reproduction, on a larger scale and under a binding
agreement, of the methods employed by floor traders over a smaller
range and in a mere loose and voluntary association resulting from
their common interests. And the individual manipulator is only a pool
consisting of one person.
Second, many conceive “Them” as an association of powerful capitalists
who are running a campaign in all the important speculative stocks
simultaneously. It is safe to say that no such permanent and united
association exists, though it would be hard to prove such a statement.
But there have been many times when a single great interest was
practically in control of the market for a time, other interests being
content to look on, or to participate in a small way, or to await a
favorable chance to take the other side.
The “Standard Oil crowd,” the “Gates crowd,” the “Morgan interests,”
and Harriman and his associates, will at once occur to the reader
as having been, at various times in the past, in sole control of
an important general campaign. At present the great interests are
generally classified into three divisions—Morgan, Standard Oil, and
Kuhn-Loeb.
A definite agreement among such interests as these would be impossible,
except for limited and temporary purposes. This is perhaps not so much
because these high financiers couldn’t trust each other, as it is
because each so-called interest consists of a loosely bound aggregation
of followers of all sorts and varieties, having only one thing in
common—control of capital. Such an “interest” is not an army, where
the traitor can be court-martialed and shot; it is a mob, and has to
be led, not driven. True, the known traitor might be put to death,
financially speaking, but in stock market operations the traitor
cannot, as a rule, be known. Unless his operations are of unusual size,
he can successfully cover his tracks.
From this second point of view, “They” are not always active in the
market. Great campaigns can only be undertaken with safety in periods
when the future is to a certain extent assured. When the future is in
doubt, when various confusing elements enter into the financial and
political situation, leading financiers may be quite content to confine
their stock market operations to individual deals, and to postpone the
inauguration of a broad campaign until a more solid foundation exists
for it.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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