Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
Third, “They” may be conceived simply as speculators and investors in
general—all that miscellaneous and heterogeneous troop of persons,
scattered over the whole world, each of whom contributes his mite to
the fluctuations of prices on the Stock Exchange. In this sense there
is no doubt about the existence of Them, and They are the court of
last resort in the establishment of prices. To put it another way,
these are the “They” who are the ultimate consumers of securities. It
is to Them that everybody else is planning, sooner or later, directly
or indirectly, to sell his stocks.
You can lead the horse to water, but you can’t make him drink. You or
I or any other great millionaire can put up prices, but you can’t make
Them buy the stocks from you, unless They have the purchasing power
and the purchasing disposition. So there is no doubt that here, at any
rate, we have a conception of Them which will stand analysis without
exploding.
In cases where a general campaign is being conducted, the “They” theory
of values is of considerable help in the accumulation or distribution
of stocks. In fact, in the late stages of a bull campaign the argument
most frequently heard is likely to be something as follows: “Yes,
prices are high and I can’t see that future prospects are especially
bullish—but stocks are in strong hands and They will have to put them
higher to make a market to sell on.” Some investors make a point of
dumping over all their stocks as soon as this veteran war-horse of the
news brigade is groomed and trotted out. Likewise, after a prolonged
bear campaign, we hear that somebody is “in trouble” and that They
are going to break the market until certain concentrated holdings are
brought out.
All this is very likely to be nothing but dust thrown in the eyes of
that most gullible of all created beings—the haphazard speculator. When
prices are so high in comparison with conditions that no sound reason
can be advanced why they should go higher, a certain number of people
are still induced to buy because of what They are going to do. Or,
at least, if the public can no longer be induced to buy in any large
volume, it is prevented from selling short for fear of what They may do.
The close student of the technical condition of the market—by which is
meant the character of the long and short interests from day to day—is
pretty sure to base his operations to a considerable extent on what
he thinks They will do next. He has in mind Them as described in the
first classification above—floor traders, pools and manipulators. He
gets a good deal of help from this conception, crude as it may appear
to be—largely, no doubt, because it serves to distract his mind from
current news and gossip, and to prevent him from being too greatly
influenced by the momentary appearance of the market.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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