Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
If Smith and Jones have a verbal agreement, which afterwards turns
out to be greatly to Jones’ advantage, Smith’s recollection is that
it was merely a loose understanding which could be cancelled at any
time, while Jones remembers it to have been a definite legal contract,
perfectly enforceable if it had only been written. Talleyrand said that
language was given us for the purpose of concealing thought. Likewise
many seem to think that logic was given us for the purpose of backing
up our desires.
Few persons are so introspective as to be able to tell where this bias
in favor of their own interests begins and where it leaves off. Still
fewer bother to make the effort to tell. To a great extent we train our
judgment to lend itself to our selfish interests. The question with us
is not so much whether we have the facts of a situation correctly in
mind, as whether we can “put it over.”
When it comes to buying and selling stocks, there is no such thing as
“putting it over.” The market is relentless. It cannot be budged by our
sophistries. It will respond exactly to the forces and personalities
which are working upon it, with no more regard for our opinions than
if we couldn’t vote. We cannot work for our own interests as in other
lines of business—we can only fit our interests to the facts.
To make the greatest success it is necessary for the trader to forget
entirely his own position _in_ the market, his profits or losses, the
relation of present prices to the point where he bought or sold, and to
fix his thoughts upon the position _of_ the market. If the market is
going down the trader must sell, no matter whether he has a profit or a
loss, whether he bought a year ago or two minutes ago.
How far the average trader is from attaining this point of view is
quickly seen from his conversation, and it is also true that a great
deal of the literature of speculation absolutely fails to reach this
conception.
“You have five points profit—you had better take it,” advises the
broker. Perhaps so, if you know nothing about the market; but if you
understand the market the time to take your profit is when the upward
movement shows signs of culminating, regardless of your own deal.
“Stop your losses; let your profits run” is a saying which appeals to
the novice as the essence of wisdom. But the whole question is _where_
to stop the losses and _how far_ to let the profits run. In other
words, what is the _market_ going to do? If you can tell this your
personal losses and profits will take care of themselves.
Here is a man who has done a great deal of figuring and has proved to
his own satisfaction that seven points is the correct profit to take
in Union Pacific, while losses should be limited to two and one-half
points. Nothing could be more foolish than these arbitrary figures. He
is trying to make the market fit itself around his own trades, instead
of adapting his trades to the market.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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