Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
In any broker’s office you will notice that a large part of the talk
concerns the profits and losses of the traders. Brown had a profit of
ten points and then let it get away from him. “Great Scott!” says his
wise friend. “What do you want? Aren’t you satisfied with ten points
profit?” The reply should be, though it rarely is, “Certainly not, if I
think the market is going higher.”
“Get them out with a small profit,” I once heard one broker say to
another. “If you don’t they will hang on and take a loss. They never
get profit enough to satisfy them.” A good policy, probably, if neither
the broker nor his customer had any real knowledge of the market; but
mere nonsense for the trader who aims to be in the slightest degree
scientific.
The fact is that the more a trader allows his mind to dwell upon his
own position in the market the more likely it is that his judgment
will become warped so that his mind is blind to those considerations
which do not fall in with his preconceived opinion.
Until you try it, you have almost no idea of the extent to which you
may be rendered unreasonable by the mere fact that you are committed
to one side of the market. “In the market, to be consistent is to be
stubborn,” some one has said; and it is true that the man of strong
will and logical intellect is often less successful than the more
shallow and volatile observer, who is ready to whiffle about like the
weathercock at any suspicion of a change in the wind. This is because
the strong man has in this instance embarked upon an enterprise where
he cannot use his natural force and determination—he can employ only
his faculties of observation and interpretation. Yet in the end the
man of character will be the more permanently successful, because he
will eventually master his subject more thoroughly and attain a more
judicial attitude.
The more simple-minded, after once committing themselves to a position,
are thereafter chiefly influenced and supported by the illusions of
hope. They bought, probably, as a result of some bullish development.
If prices have advanced, they find that the market “looks strong,” a
good deal of encouraging news comes out on the tickers, and they hope
for large profits. After five points in their favor, they hope for ten,
and after ten they look for fifteen or twenty.
On the other hand, if prices decline they charge it to “manipulation,”
“bear raids,” etc., and expect an early recovery. Much of the bear news
appears to them to be put out maliciously, in order to cause prices to
decline further. It is not until the decline begins to cause a painful
encroachment upon their capital that they reach the point of saying,
“If ‘they’ can depress prices like this in the face of a bullish
situation, what is the use of fighting them? By a flood of short
sales, they can put prices down as much as they like”—or something of
the sort.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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