Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
These imaginary millionaires appear in a small swarm during every
prolonged bull market, only to fall with their wings singed as soon
as prices decline. Such speculators are, to all practical intents and
purposes, irresponsible. It is their very irresponsibility which has
enabled them to make money so rapidly on advancing prices. The prudent
man gets only moderate profits in a bull market—it is the man who
trades on “shoe-string margins” who gets the biggest benefit out of the
rise.
When such mushroom fortunes have accumulated, the market may fall
temporarily into the hands of these daredevil spirits, so that
almost any recklessness is possible for the time. It is this kind of
buying which causes prices to go higher after they are already high
enough—just as they go lower in a panic after they are plainly seen to
be low enough.
When prices get above the natural level, a well-judged short interest
begins to appear. These shorts are right, but right too soon. In a
genuine bull market they are nearly always driven to cover by a
further rise, which is, from any common sense standpoint, unreasonable.
A riot of pyramided margins drives the sane and calculating short
seller temporarily to shelter.
A psychological influence of a much wider scope also operates to help
a bull market along to unreasonable heights. Such a market is usually
accompanied by rising prices in all lines of business and these rising
prices always create, in the minds of business men, the impression that
their various enterprises are more profitable than is really the case.
One reason for this false impression is found in stocks of goods on
hand. Take the wholesale grocer, for example, carrying a stock of goods
which inventories $10,000 in January, 1909. On that date Bradstreet’s
index of commodity prices stood at 8.26. In January, 1910, Bradstreet’s
index was 9.23. If the prices of the various articles included in
this stock of groceries increased in the same ratio as Bradstreet’s
list, and if the grocer had on hand exactly the same things, he would
inventory them at about $11,168 in January, 1910.
He made an additional profit of $1,168 during the year without any
effort, and probably without any calculation, on his part. But this
profit was only apparent, not real; for he could not buy any more
with the $11,168 in January, 1910, than he could have bought with the
$10,000 in January, 1909. He is deceived into supposing himself richer
than he really is, and this false idea leads to a gradual growth of
extravagance and speculation in every line of business and every walk
of life.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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