Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
The secondary results of this delusion of increased wealth because of
rising prices, are even more important than the primary results. Our
grocer, for example, decides to spend this $1,168 for an automobile.
This helps the automobile business. Hundreds of similar orders induce
the automobile company to enlarge its plant. This means extensive
purchases of material and employment of labor. The increased demand
resulting from a similar condition of things in all departments of
industry produces, if other conditions are favorable, a still further
rise in prices; hence at the end of another year the grocer perhaps has
another imaginary profit, which he spends in enlarging his residence or
buying new furniture, etc.
The stock market feels the reflection of all this increased business
and higher prices. Yet the whole thing is psychological, and sooner or
later our grocer must earn and save, by hard work, economical living
and shrewd calculation, the amount he has paid for his automobile or
furniture.
Again, rising stock prices and rising commodity prices react on each
other. If the grocer, in addition to his imaginary profit of $1,168
sees a ten per cent. advance in the prices of various securities
which he holds for investment, he is encouraged to still larger
expenditures; and likewise if the capitalist notes a ten per cent.
advance in the stock market, he perhaps employs additional servants and
enlarges his household expenditures so that he buys more groceries.
Thus the feeling of confidence and enthusiasm spreads wider and wider
like ripples from a stone dropped into a pond. And all of these
developments are faithfully reflected by the stock market barometer.
The result is that, in a year like 1902 or 1906, the high prices
for stocks and the feverish activity of general trade are based, to
an entirely unsuspected extent, on a sort of pyramid of mistaken
impressions, most of which may be traced, directly or indirectly, to
the fact that we measure everything in money and always think of this
money-measure as fixed and unchangeable, while in reality our money
fluctuates in value just like iron, potatoes, or “Fruit of the Loom.”
We are accustomed to figuring the money-value of wheat, but we get a
headache when we try to reckon the wheat-value of money.
When a fictitious situation like this begins to go to pieces, the
stock market, fulfilling its function of barometer, declines first,
while general business continues active. Then the “money sharks of
Wall Street” get themselves roundly cursed by the public and there is
a widespread desire to wipe them off the earth in summary fashion.
The stock market never finds itself popular unless it is going up;
yet its going down undoubtedly does far more to promote the country’s
welfare in the long run, for it serves to temper the crash which must
eventually come in general business circles and to forewarn us of
trouble ahead so that we may prepare for it.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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