Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
The “long pull” investor, buying outright for cash and holding for a
liberal profit, need only consider this matter enough to guard against
becoming confused by the vagaries of public sentiment or by his own
inverted reasoning processes. He will get the best results by keeping
his eye single to two things: Facts and Prices. The current rate of
interest, the earning power of the corporations whose stocks he buys,
the development of political conditions as affecting invested capital,
and the relation of current prices to the situation as shown by these
three factors—these constitute the most important food for his mind to
work upon.
When he finds himself wandering off into a consideration of what “They”
will do next, or what effect such and such events may have on the
sentiment of speculators, he cannot do better than to bring himself up
with a short turn and sternly bid himself “Back to common sense.”
For the more active trader the situation is different. He need not be
entirely unregardful of values or fundamental conditions, but his prime
object is to “go with the tide.” That means basing his operations to a
great extent on what others will think and do. His own mental attitude,
then, is a most important part of his equipment for success.
First, the trader must be a _reasoning optimist_. A more horrible fate
can scarcely be imagined than the shallow pessimism of many market
habitués, whose minds, incapable of grasping the larger forces beneath
the movements of prices, take refuge in a cynical disbelief in pretty
much everything that makes life worth living.
Owing to the nature of the business, however, this optimism must be of
a somewhat different character from that which brings success in other
lines. As a general thing optimism includes the persistent nourishing
of hope, an aggressive confidence, the certainty that you are right,
a firm determination to accomplish your end. But you cannot make the
stock market move your way by believing that it will do so. Here is one
case, at any rate, where New Thought methods cannot be directly applied.
In the market you are nothing but a chip on the tide of events.
Optimism, then, must consist in believing, not that the tide will
continually flow your way, but that you will succeed in floating with
the tide. Your optimism must be, in a sense, of the intellect, not of
the will. An optimism based on determination would, in this case,
amount to stubbornness.
Another quality that makes for success in nearly every line of business
is enthusiasm. For this you have absolutely no use in the stock
market. The moment you permit yourself to become enthusiastic, you are
subordinating your reasoning powers to your beliefs or desires.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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