Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
Enthusiasm helps you influence other men’s minds, but in the market you
do not desire to do this (unless you happen to be a big bull leader).
You wish to keep your mind as clear, cool and unruffled as the surface
of a mountain lake on a calm day. Any emotion—enthusiasm, fear, anger,
depression—will only cloud the intellect.
Doubtless it would be axiomatic to warn the trader against
stubbornness. It cannot be assumed that any operator would consciously
permit himself to become stubborn. The trouble arises in drawing the
line between, on the one hand, persistence, consistence, pursuit of
a definite plan until conditions change; and, on the other, stubborn
adherence to a course of action which subsequent events have proved to
be erroneous.
A day in the country, with the market forgotten, or if necessary
forcibly ejected from the thoughts, will often enable the trader to
return with a clarified mind, so that he can then intelligently convict
or acquit himself of the vice of stubbornness. Sometimes it may become
necessary to close all commitments and remain out of the market for a
few days.
One of the most common errors might be described as “getting a
notion.” This is due to the failure or inability of the trader to
take a broad view of the entire situation. Some particular point in
the complex conditions which usually control prices, appeals to him
strongly and impresses him as certain to have its effect on the market.
He acts on this single idea. The idea may be all right, but other
counterbalancing factors may prevent it from having its natural effect.
You encounter these “notions” every day in the Street. You meet a
highly conservative individual and ask him what he thinks of the
situation. “I am alarmed at the rapid spread of radical sentiment,” he
replies. “How can we expect capital to branch out into new enterprises
when the profits may be swept away at any moment by socialistic
legislation?”
You say mildly that the crops are good, the banking situation sound,
business active, etc. But all this produces no impression upon him. He
has sold all his stocks and has his money in the banks. (He is also
short a considerable line, but he doesn’t tell you this). He will not
buy again until the public becomes “sane.”
The next man you talk with says: “We cannot have much decline with the
present good crop prospect. Crops lie at the basis of everything. With
nine billions of new wealth coming out of the ground and flowing into
the channels of trade, we are bound to have prosperous conditions for
some time to come.”
You speak of radicalism, adverse legislation, high cost of living,
etc.; but he thinks these are relatively unimportant compared with that
$9,000,000,000 of new wealth. Of course, he is long of stocks.
“To make the worse appear the better reason,” said Mr. Socrates, some
little time ago. It is too bad we can’t have Socrates’ comments on Wall
Street. The Socratic method applied to the average speculator would
produce amusing results.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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