Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
Beware of saying, “This is the most important factor in the situation,”
unless the action of the market shows that others agree with you. Every
human mind has its own peculiarities, so presumably yours has, though
you can’t see them plainly; but the stock market is the meeting of many
minds, having every imaginable peculiarity. However important some
single factor in the situation may appear to you, it is not going to
control the movement of prices regardless of everything else.
An exaggerated example of “getting a notion” is seen in the so-called
“hunch.” This term appears to mean, when it means anything, a sort of
sudden welling up of instinct so strong as to induce the trader to
follow it regardless of reason. In many cases, the “hunch” is nothing
more than a strong impulse.
Almost any business man will say at times, “I have a feeling that we
ought not to do this,” or “Somehow I don’t like that proposition,”
without being able to explain clearly the grounds for his opposition.
Likewise the “hunch” of a man who has watched the stock market for
half a lifetime may not be without value. In such a case it doubtless
represents an accumulation of small indications, each so trifling or so
evasive that the trader cannot clearly marshal and review them even in
his own mind.
Only the experienced trader is entitled to a “hunch.” The novice, or
the man who is not closely in touch with technical conditions, is
merely making an unusual ass of himself when he talks about a “hunch.”
The successful trader gradually learns to study his own psychological
characteristics and allow to some extent for his customary errors of
judgment. If he finds that he is generally too hasty in reaching a
conclusion, he learns to wait and reflect further. After making his
decision, he withdraws it and lays it up on a shelf to ripen. He makes
only a part of his full commitment at the moment when he feels most
confident, holding the remainder in reserve.
If he finds that he is usually overcautious, he eventually learns to be
a little more daring, to buy a part of his line while his mind is still
partially enveloped in the mists of doubt.
Most of the practical suggestions which can be offered are necessarily
of a somewhat negative character. We can point out the errors to be
avoided much more successfully than we can lay out a course of positive
action. But the following summary may be useful to the active trader:
(1) Your main purpose must be to keep the mind clear and well balanced.
Hence, do not act hastily on apparently sensational information; do not
trade so heavily as to become anxious; and do not permit yourself to be
influenced by your position in the market.
(2) Act on your own judgment, or else act absolutely and entirely on
the judgment of another, regardless of your own opinion. “Too many
cooks spoil the broth.”
(3) When in doubt, keep out of the market. Delays cost less than losses.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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