Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
Once the top-heavy load is overturned, the decline is usually more
rapid than the previous advance. The floating supply, now greatly
increased, is tossed about from one speculator to another at lower
and lower prices. From time to time stocks become temporarily lodged
in stubborn hands, so that part of the shorts take fright and cover,
causing a sharp upturn; but so long as the load of stocks is still on
the market the general course of prices must be downward.
Until investors or big speculative capitalists again come into the
market, the load of stocks to be carried by ordinary speculative bulls
increases almost continually. There is no lessening of the floating
supply of stock certificates in the Street, and there is a gradual
increase in the short interest; and of course the bulls have to carry
these short sales as well as the actual certificates, since for every
seller there must be a buyer, whether the sale be made by a short or
a long. Shorts cover again and again on the sharp breaks, but in most
cases they put out their lines again, either higher or lower, as
opportunity offers. On the average, the short interest is largest at
low prices, though there are likely to be periods during the decline
when it will be larger than at the final bottom, where buying by shorts
often helps to avert panicky conditions.
The length of this decline, like the extent of the preceding advance,
depends on fundamental conditions; for both investors and speculative
capitalists will come into the market sooner if all conditions are
favorable than they will in a stringent money market or when the future
prospects of business are unsatisfactory. As a rule, buyers do not
appear in force until a “bargain day” appears. This is when, in its
downward course, the heavy load of stocks strikes an area honeycombed
with stop loss orders. Floor traders seize the opportunity to put out
short lines and a general collapse results.
Here are plenty of stocks to be had cheap, and shrewd operators—large
and small, but mostly large or on the way to become so—are busy
picking them up. The fixed limits of many investors are also reached
by the sharp break, and their purchases disappear, to be seen in the
Street no more until the next bull turn.
Many shorts cover on such a break, but not all. The sequel to the
“bargain day” is a big short interest which has overstayed its market,
and a quick rally follows; but when the more urgent shorts get relief,
prices sag again and fall into that condition of lethargy from which
this consideration of the speculative cycle started.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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