Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
The reason why sales by investors are so effective is not because of
the actual amount of stock thrown on the market, but because this stock
is a permanent load, which will not be got rid of again until prices
have suffered a severe decline. What the speculator sells he or some
other trader may buy back tomorrow.
The time comes when everybody seems to be buying. Prices become
confused. One stock leaps upward in a way to strike terror to the heart
of the last surviving short. Another appears almost equally strong, but
slips back unobtrusively when nobody is looking, like the frog jumping
out of the well in the arithmetic of our boyhood. Still another churns
violently in one place, like a side-wheeler stuck on a sand-bar.
Then the market gives a sudden lurch downward, as though in danger
of spilling out its unwieldy contents. This is hailed as a “healthy
reaction,” though it is a mystery whom it can be healthy for, unless it
is the shorts. Prices recover again, with everybody happy except a few
disgruntled bears, who are rightly regarded with contemptuous amusement.
Curiously, however, there seems to be stock enough for all comers, and
the few cranks who have time to bother with such things notice that
the general average of prices is now rising very slowly, if at all. The
largest speculative holders of stocks, finding a market big enough to
absorb their sales, are letting go. And there are always stocks enough
to go around. Our big capitalists are seldom entirely out of stocks.
They merely have more stocks when prices are low and fewer when prices
are high. Moreover, long before there is any danger of the supply
running out, plenty of new issues are created.
When there is a general public interest in the stock market, an immense
amount of realizing will often be absorbed within three or four days or
a week, after which the deluge; but if speculation is narrow, prices
may remain around top figures for weeks or months, while big holdings
are fed out, a few hundred shares here and a few hundred there, and
even then a balance may be left to be thrown over on the ensuing
decline at whatever prices can be obtained. Great speculative leaders
are far from infallible. They have often sold out too soon and later
have seen the market run away to unexpected heights, or have held on
too long and have suffered severe losses before they could get out.
In this selling the bull leaders get a good deal of undesired help from
the bears. However wary the bulls may be in concealing their sales,
their machinations will be discovered by watchful professionals and
shrewd chart students, and a considerable sprinkling of short sales
will be put out within a few points of the top. This is one of the
reasons why the long swings in active speculative stocks are smaller
in proportion to price than in inactive specialties of a similar
character—contrary to the generally received impression. It is rare
that any considerable short interest exists in the inactive stocks.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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