Now you must not run away with the notion that Jim Barnes and his
associates were fools or inexperienced kids. They were shrewd men. All
of them were familiar with Wall Street methods and some of them were
exceptionally successful stock traders. But they did rather more than
merely overestimate the public’s buying capacity. After all, that
capacity was something that they could determine only by actual tests.
Where they erred more expensively was in expecting the bull market
to last longer than it did. I suppose the reason was that these same
men had met with such great and particularly with such quick success
that they didn’t doubt they’d be all through with the deal before the
bull market turned. They were all well known and had a considerable
following among the professional traders and the wire houses.
The deal was extremely well advertised. The newspapers certainly were
generous with their space. The older concerns were identified with the
stove industry of America and their product was known the world over.
It was a patriotic amalgamation and there was a heap of literature in
the daily papers about the world conquests. The markets of Asia, Africa
and South America were as good as cinched.
The directors of the company were all men whose names were familiar
to all readers of the financial pages. The publicity work was so well
handled and the promises of unnamed insiders as to what the price was
going to do were so definite and convincing that a great demand for the
new stock was created. The result was that when the books were closed
it was found that the stock which was offered to the public at fifty
dollars a share had been oversubscribed by 25 per cent.
Think of it! The best the promoters should have expected was to
succeed in selling the new stock at that price after weeks of work and
after putting up the price to 75 or higher in order to average 50.
At that, it meant an advance of about 100 per cent in the old prices
of the stocks of the constituent companies. That was the crisis and
they did not meet it as it should have been met. It shows you that
every business has its own needs. General wisdom is less valuable
than specific savvy. The promoters, delighted by the unexpected
oversubscription, concluded that the public was ready to pay any price
for any quantity of that stock. And they actually were stupid enough
to underallot the stock. After the promoters made up their minds to be
hoggish they should have tried to be intelligently hoggish.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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