I noticed that in advances as well as declines, stock prices were apt
to show certain habits, so to speak. There was no end of parallel cases
and these made precedents to guide me. I was only fourteen, but after
I had taken hundreds of observations in my mind I found myself testing
their accuracy, comparing the behaviour of stocks to-day with other
days. It was not long before I was anticipating movements in prices. My
only guide, as I say, was their past performances. I carried the “dope
sheets” in my mind. I looked for stock prices to run on form. I had
“clocked” them. You know what I mean.
You can spot, for instance, where the buying is only a trifle better
than the selling. A battle goes on in the stock market and the tape is
your telescope. You can depend upon it seven out of ten cases.
Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall
Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills.
Whatever happens in the stock market to-day has happened before and
will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that. I suppose I really manage
to remember when and how it happened. The fact that I remember that way
is my way of capitalizing experience.
I got so interested in my game and so anxious to anticipate advances
and declines in all the active stocks that I got a little book. I
put down my observations in it. It was not a record of imaginary
transactions such as so many people keep merely to make or lose
millions of dollars without getting the swelled head or going to the
poorhouse. It was rather a sort of record of my hits and misses, and
next to the determination of probable movements I was most interested
in verifying whether I had observed accurately; in other words, whether
I was right.
Say that after studying every fluctuation of the day in an active stock
I would conclude that it was behaving as it always did before it broke
eight or ten points. Well, I would jot down the stock and the price
on Monday, and remembering past performances I would write down what
it ought to do on Tuesday and Wednesday. Later I would check up with
actual transcriptions from the tape.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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