Difficult as profitable stock speculation always has been it is
becoming even more difficult every day. It was not so long ago when a
real trader could have a good working knowledge of practically every
stock on the list. In 1901, when J. P. Morgan brought out the United
States Steel Corporation, which was merely a consolidation of lesser
consolidations most of which were less than two years old, the Stock
Exchange had 275 stocks on its list and about 100 in its “unlisted
department”; and this included a lot that a chap didn’t have to know
anything about because they were small issues, or inactive by reason
of being minority or guaranteed stocks and therefore lacking in
speculative attractions. In fact, an overwhelming majority were stocks
in which there had not been a sale in years. Today there are about 900
stocks on the regular list and in our recent active markets about 600
separate issues were traded in. Moreover, the old groups or classes
of stocks were easier to keep track of. They not only were fewer but
the capitalization was smaller and the news a trader had to be on the
lookout for did not cover so wide a field. But today, a man is trading
in everything; almost every industry in the world is represented. It
requires more time and more work to keep posted and to that extent
speculation has become much more difficult for those who operate
intelligently.
There are many thousands of people who buy and sell stocks
speculatively but the number of those who speculate profitably is
small. As the public always is “in” the market to some extent,
it follows that there are losses by the public all the time. The
speculator’s deadly enemies are: Ignorance, greed, fear and hope. All
the statute books in the world and all the rules of all the Exchanges
on earth cannot eliminate these from the human animal. Accidents which
knock carefully conceived plans skyhigh also are beyond regulation by
bodies of cold-blooded economists or warm-hearted philanthropists.
There remains another source of loss and that is, deliberate
misinformation as distinguished from straight tips. And because it is
apt to come to a stock trader variously disguised and camouflaged, it
is the more insidious and dangerous.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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