I had to go further back than an hour in my studies of the
market--which was something I never would have learned to do in the
biggest bucket shop in the world. I interested myself in trade reports
and railroad earnings and financial and commercial statistics. Of
course I loved to trade heavily and they called me the Boy Plunger;
but I also liked to study the moves. I never thought that anything was
irksome if it helped me to trade more intelligently. Before I can solve
a problem I must state it to myself. When I think I have found the
solution I must prove I am right. I know of only one way to prove it;
and that is, with my own money.
Slow as my progress seems now, I suppose I learned as fast as I
possibly could, considering that I was making money on balance. If I
had lost oftener perhaps it might have spurred me to more continuous
study. I certainly would have had more mistakes to spot. But I am not
sure of the exact value of losing, for if I had lost more I would have
lacked the money to test out the improvements in my methods of trading.
Studying my winning plays in Fullerton’s office I discovered that
although I often was 100 per cent right on the market--that is, in my
diagnosis of conditions and general trend--I was not making as much
money as my market “rightness” entitled me to. Why wasn’t I?
There was as much to learn from partial victory as from defeat.
For instance, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market,
and I had backed my opinion by buying stocks. An advance followed,
as I had clearly foreseen. So far, all very well. But what else did
I do? Why, I listened to the elder statesmen and curbed my youthful
impetuousness. I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully,
conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take
profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely
what I did, or rather what I tried to do; for I often took profits and
waited for a reaction that never came. And I saw my stock go kiting up
ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in
my conservative pocket. _They say you never grow poor taking profits.
No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit
in a bull market._
Where I should have made twenty thousand dollars I made two thousand.
That was what my conservatism did for me. About the time I discovered
what a small percentage of what I should have made I was getting I
discovered something else, and that is that suckers differ among
themselves according to the degree of experience.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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