Rough Ways Made Smooth: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjectsProctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Rough Ways Made Smooth: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Rainfall and atmospheric pressure in India have been found to vary
in a cyclic manner, of late years at any rate, the periods being
generally about 10 or 11 years. The activity of the sun, as shown by
the existence of many spots, apparently makes more rainfall at Madras,
Najpore, and some other places; while at Calcutta, Bombay, Mysore,
and elsewhere it produces a contrary effect. Yet these effects are
produced in a somewhat capricious way: for sometimes the year of actual
_maximum_ spot frequency is one in which rainfall is below the average
(instead of above) at the former stations, and above the average
(instead of below) at the latter. It is only by taking averages--and in
a somewhat artificial manner--that the relation seems to be indicated
on which stress has been laid.
Since Indian famines are directly dependent on defective rainfall, it
is natural that during the years over which observation has hitherto
extended the connection apparently existing between sun-spots and
Indian rainfall should seem also to extend itself to Indian famines. It
was equally to be expected that since cyclones have been rather more
numerous, for some time past, in years when sun-spots have been most
numerous, shipwrecks should also have been somewhat more frequent in
such years. Two years ago Mr. Jeula gave some evidence which, in his
opinion, indicated such a connection between sun-spots and shipwrecks.
He showed that in the four years of fewest spots the mean percentage
of losses was 8.64; in four intermediate years the mean percentage was
9.21; in three remaining years of the eleven-year cycle--that is, in
three years of greatest spot frequency the mean percentage was 9.53.
Some suggested that possibly such events as the American war, which
included two of the three years of greatest spot frequency, may have
had more effect than sun-spots in increasing the percentage of ships
lost; while perhaps, the depression following the commercial panic of
1866 (at a time of fewest sun-spots) may have been almost as effective
in reducing the percentage of losses as the diminished area of solar
maculation. But others consider that we ought rather to regard the
American war as yet another product of the sun's increased activity in
1860-61, and the great commercial panic of 1866 as directly resulting
from diminished sun-spots at that time, thus obtaining fresh evidence
of the sun's specific influence on terrestrial phenomena instead of
explaining away the evidence derived from Lloyd's list of losses.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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