Rough Ways Made Smooth: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjectsProctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Rough Ways Made Smooth: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
This leads us to the last, and, in some respects, the most singular
suggestion respecting solar influence on mundane events--the idea,
namely, that commercial crises synchronise with the sun-spot period,
occurring near the time when spots are least in size and fewest in
number; or, as Professor Jevons (to whom the definite enunciation of
this theory is due) poetically presents the matter, that from 'the sun,
which is truly "of this great world both eye and soul," we derive our
strength and our weakness, our success and our failure, our elation in
commercial mania, and our despondency and ruin in commercial collapse.'
We have better opportunities of dealing with this theory than with the
others, for we have records of commercial matters extending as far back
as the beginning of the eighteenth century. In fact, we have better
evidence than Professor Jevons seems to have supposed, for whereas in
his discussion of the matter he considers only the probable average
of the sun-spot period, we know approximately the epochs themselves
at which the _maxima_ and _minima_ of sun spots have occurred since
the year 1700. The evidence as presented by Professor Jevons is very
striking, though when examined in detail it is rather disappointing.
He presents the whole series of decennial crises as follows:--1701?
(such query marks are his own), 1711, 1721, 1731-32, 1742 (?), 1752
(?), 1763, 1772-73, 1783, 1793, 1804-5 (?), 1815, 1825, 1836-9 (1837
in the United States), 1847, 1857, 1866 and 1878. The average interval
comes out 10.466 years, showing, as Jevons points out, 'almost perfect
coincidence with Brown's estimate of the average sun-spot period.' Let
us see, however, whether these dates correspond so closely with the
years of _minimum_ spot-frequency as to remove all doubt. Taking 5-1/4
years as the average interval between _maximum_ and _minimum_ sun-spot
frequency, we should like to find every crisis occurring within a year
or so on either side of the _minimum_ though we should prefer perhaps
to find the crisis always following the time of fewest sun-spots,
as this would more directly show the depressing effect of a spotless
sun. No crisis ought to occur within a year or so of _maximum_ solar
disturbance; for that, it should seem, would be fatal to the suggested
theory. Taking the commercial crises in order, and comparing them with
the known (or approximately known) epochs of _maximum_ and _minimum_
spot frequency, we obtain the following results (we italicize numbers
or results unfavourable to the theory):--The doubtful crisis of 1701
followed a spot _minimum_ by _three_ years; the crisis of 1711 preceded
a _minimum_ by one year; that of 1721 preceded a _minimum_ by two
years; 1731-32, preceded a _minimum_ by one year; 1742 preceded a
_minimum_ by _three_ years; 1752 followed a _maximum_ by _two_ years;
1763 followed a _maximum_ by _a year and a half_; 1772-73 came _midway_
between a _maximum_ and a _minimum_; 1783 preceded a _minimum_ by
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