Although billions of saguaro seeds are produced yearly in the extensive stands of the monument, only a very few find favorable locations for germination and growth. Trees, rocks, dead limbs, pebbles—anything that reduces evaporation in the immediate vicinity of the seed—improve the chance of germination. These kinds of shelter not only provide the necessary moisture conditions, but also hide the seed from armies of ants, rodents, and other animals searching for food. [Illustration: Saguaro blossoms.] [Illustration: Saguaro fruit.] Early growth is extremely slow. A 2-year-old saguaro may be only one-quarter of an inch in diameter, and a 9-year-old plant may be 6 inches high. These years are the most hazardous. Insect larvae devour the tiny cactuses. Woodrats and other rodents chew the succulent tissue for its water, and ground squirrels uproot the young plants with their digging. In later life, the saguaro must contend with uprooting wind and human vandalism, as well as the earlier foes—drought, frost, erosion, and animals. [Illustration: Gila woodpecker at its nesting hole.] In a century of maturity, a saguaro may produce 50 million seeds; replacement of the parent plant would require only that one of these germinate and grow. But in the cactus forest of the Rincon Mountain Section, the rate of survival has been even lower, so that over the last few decades the stand has been dwindling. What is wrong? Many answers to this question have been advanced, but like all interrelationships in nature, the saguaro’s role in the desert web of life is very complex, and involves past events as well as present ones; a partial answer to the problem may be all we can hope for. The following reasons for the decline of the saguaros have been suggested by researchers. [Illustration: Saguaro, 1 foot high, in a rocky habitat.] [Illustration: A typical 4-foot saguaro.] There is some evidence to suggest that the Southwest has been getting drier since at least the late 19th century, and while the saguaro is adapted to extreme aridity, some of the “nurse” plants that shelter it during infancy are not. If such shrubs as paloverdes and mesquites dwindle, it is argued, so must the saguaro, which in its early years depends on them for shade.