Shock and Awe — Achieving Rapid DominanceUllman, Harlan
History
Shock and Awe — Achieving Rapid Dominance
Ullman, Harlan
Rapid dominance (Military science)
The U.S. military is more likely to find itself in a supporting
foreign policy role with discrete missions that are only one facet of
a larger political context. This context is almost certainly going to
expand into militarily grey areas of OOTW, including those impinging
on law enforcement and ensuring political stability. Forces may be
called upon to deal with or control situations on the margin rather
than to achieve total submission or defeat of an opponent. The
prevailing political preference is likely to continue to be to try to
bound these complex challenges through fine tuning, artificial
constructs, and discretely limited tasks, often performed in the midst
of internal conflict. Economic sanctions (e.g., Serbia, Iraq), "no
fly" zones (e.g., Southern and Northern Iraq and Bosnia), "safe
havens" (e.g., Bosnia), humanitarian relief delivered by "all means
necessary" (e.g., Somalia, Bosnia), and embassy protection and
evacuation (e.g., Liberia in 1991 and again in 1996) are the kinds of
OOTW tasks more likely to be assigned by policy makers. Such tasks
tend to be inconclusive and of long duration. They also increase
vulnerability to terrorist attack such as the bombing of the Kolbah
Barracks in Riyadh in June 1996.
Americans prefer not to intervene, especially when the direct threat
to the U.S. is ambiguous, tenuous, or difficult to define. Therefore,
when intervention is necessary there is likely to be both a political
and practical imperative to have allied or international involvement
or at least the political cover of the UN, NATO, or appropriate NGOs.
As more states (and sub-national groups) acquire nuclear, chemical,
and biological weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities and
longer range delivery means, the ability for rogues to inflict pain
will increase as will the ability to ratchet up the political risks.
WMD can easily complicate our ability to influence positive and
constructive behavior of possessors. Because of the threat of
retaliation, WMD capabilities may become politically acceptable
targets provided collateral damage to civilians is minimized.
Preemption may become a more realistic option along the lines of
Israel's strikes against Syria's nuclear reactors in 1982. It is,
however, a responsible state's worst nightmare to have successfully
struck a chemical, biological, or nuclear production facility with
precision only to learn the next day that hundreds of civilians have
been killed due to the inadvertent release of chemical, biological, or
nuclear materials.
There must also be an appropriate political context that justifies the
use of preemptive force, as opposed to less destructive or non-lethal
types of sanctions (e.g., responses to terrorism in the case of Libya,
invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, exports of WMD to a threatening country
such as Iran, the North Korean threat to South Korea and Japan).
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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