Studies of Birds Killed in Nocturnal MigrationTordoff, Harrison Bruce
Science
Studies of Birds Killed in Nocturnal Migration
Tordoff, Harrison Bruce
Birds -- Migration
Upon the application of statistical methods it soon became evident
that, unless changes in ratio between two samples are marked, large
samples would be required in order to reach conclusions of high
statistical significance in a single study of the present type. In
this case (see Table 2), the Lincoln Sparrow and Orange-crowned
Warbler, though represented by only moderate-sized series, show marked
changes in age composition over the period studied, and the
statistical treatment indicates a high degree of probability that
these changes are real. Assurance that the lesser changes observed in
the Nashville Warbler and Yellow-throat are real, on the other hand,
is much less, even though the samples are larger. Few if any of the
samples here discussed are as large as might be desired. Therefore,
conclusions based upon them (see below) are to be regarded as
tentative. Many other, future, samples will perhaps also be
insufficient in size in themselves. There are, however, statistical
advantages to repetition which will serve to make the repeated
analysis even of small samples significant and valuable.
Certain of the samples not treated statistically show ratios that can
be seen by inspection to be probably significant. For example the
almost complete absence of adults from the three samples of Red-eyed
Vireos (Fig. 1E) cannot be disregarded in view of the size of the
whole sample of the species. The same applies to the high percentage
of adult females and the near absence of adult males in the sample of
the Dickcissel (Fig. 1F). The continuity in direction of changes
observed in the three samples of the Mourning Warbler (Fig. 1G) and
Red-eyed Vireo is likewise probably significant, even though some of
the samples compared are small. It seems to us that the application of
statistical methods to these species should await the accumulation of
more material. For anyone desiring to treat them statistically now,
the data are inherent in this paper.
We have not computed the standard errors of the ratios of sexes within
age groups (except experimentally in a few cases). This can easily be
done, however, and the significance of a given ratio determined, on
the assumption (perhaps sometimes dubiously justifiable) that the
sex-ratio in the species concerned is one:one. Obviously there is no
point in computation of the standard errors of adult-immature ratios
in single samples (such as that of the Dickcissel) until the actual
ratio prevailing in the species in nature at the season in question is
known for comparison with the observed ratio. Our formal statistical
treatment, therefore, has been limited to an examination of the
significance of the _changes_ between adult-immature ratios in samples
of the same species taken a number of days apart.
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