The Common Nature of Epidemics, and their relation to climate and civilizationSmith, Southwood
History
The Common Nature of Epidemics, and their relation to climate and civilization
Smith, Southwood
Communicable diseases; Epidemics; Quarantine
The spirit of improvement thus awakened exerted itself with increased
effect during the whole of the eighteenth century. Agriculture, which
was now rapidly advancing, had created a demand for town refuse, the
fertilizing property of which began to be perceived; so that all manner
of offensive substances were regularly carried away to the fields, to
the great increase of the cleanliness of the streets. At the same time
many of the narrower streets were widened, the houses were entirely
taken down and rebuilt, and in this operation slate was universally
substituted for thatch, and brick for timber. The pavement also, which
had long been the reproach of London, was improved. Population in the
mean time rapidly increased, less by the relative increase of the number
of births than by the proportionate decrease of the deaths, and this
notwithstanding the occasional occurrence of severe pestilence. The
result of the whole was an increase in the length of life.
An increase in the length of life is an expression and a measure of the
sum of comfort experienced from the whole collective circumstances that
make up national prosperity. In the interval between the seventeenth and
eighteenth centuries that sum grew into a highly important one. Of this
the proof is positive.
It happened that in the year 1693 a loan was raised for the service of
the State by the method of Tontine, and that another was contracted by
the same method in the year 1790; the interval being almost exactly a
century.
The term Tontine is derived from the name of the originator of this
scheme of life annuity, the principle of which is this. The person who
advances £100 is at liberty to name any life he pleases, during the
existence of which he draws a certain annuity; and as the shares of the
dead nominees are distributed among the living ones, the annuity
continually increases till the last survivor gets the whole income.
A comparison of the experience between two Tontines gives the exact
measure of the effect produced on the duration of life, by such changes
in the social condition of the people as may have occurred in the
interval between them.
A person of the male sex (for there is a considerable difference in the
results in the two sexes), living in 1793, compared with a male living
in 1690, at fifteen years of age, had gained an expectation of life of
nearly ten years; at twenty years of age, nine years and a half; at
twenty-five years of age, upwards of eight years; at thirty years of
age, upwards of seven years, and so on.
Or the gain in the expectation of life may be stated more correctly in
years, thus: Take for example a man at the age of 30, in 1693 his
expectation of life would have been 26.665; in 1790 it would have been
33.775 years.
On this evidence Mr Finlaison justly observes that civilization could
not have increased by a single leap in the time of Mr Pitt, but must
have been slowly on the increase at least since the days of Queen Anne.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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