It may be contended that the active speculator has little to do with ten year cycles or their causes, but this is not the case. A correct understanding of the reasons for the great cycles will simplify the study of smaller intermediate movements. Much knowledge applicable to year to year movements will be gained. Monetary troubles, for example, occur almost annually, and their effects on market movements are usually, (not always), similar to those of more widely separated periods, but, of course, in a lesser degree. III The Gold Supply It may be stated without hesitation that the effect of the increasing supply of gold upon prices of all bonds, shares, or commodities which may be classed as speculative, is more decided and certain in its operation than any other single factor. The process of readjustment due to this cause would be slow and regular if the principles at issue were universally and clearly understood. Not being generally recognized, however, the changes wrought by what is naturally an insidious factor are, at times, spasmodic and feverish. It is a remarkable fact that whenever a revolution occurs in any economic or financial process which is, by its nature, concealed or recondite, its existence and influence are discovered by a number of students simultaneously but independently. Important reversions or modifications may be submerged for a long period, and suddenly light is offered from all parts of the thinking world. It is probable that this intellectual phenomenon extends to, or is communicated to the financial world, and that marked and drastic changes in the affected quarters represent a belated recognition of forces hitherto unknown, and the readjustment of affairs by those who see first and furthest. That the operations of this minority will be important goes without saying. The faculty to grasp fully and quickly anything salient bearing on financial affairs is the ground-work of riches and consequently the trained minds of great holders of shares or commodities will respond most readily to sound basic arguments, and the greatest holders can often make of their knowledge a two-edged sword. For example, certain large holders of bonds, recognizing the fact that increasing gold production means higher interest rates, and consequently lower prices for bonds, would be able to dispose of bonds to advantage because of the apparent general prosperity growing out of this same production of gold. It may be assumed that in pointing out in interviews, etc., this reign of prosperity, the gentlemen in question would modestly omit to mention that the same influences which were causing high prices and much business in some quarters, were working damage in others.