Something of this kind has been going on in our bond and stock
markets of late. The inevitable influence of gold on prices has made
itself slowly felt for a long period, but it is only in the last year
that a considerable number of individuals whose operations are of
importance in the financial world have come to recognize how powerful
this influence is. Price changes in divers securities and commodities
hitherto unaccounted for, or attributed to wrong influences, have
suddenly been explained to a number of important financiers, and a
correct understanding of the problem has undoubtedly resulted in
radical readjustments in some quarters. With that pertinacity in error
which seems to distinguish the ordinary speculator, he has, however,
gone on attributing these processes of equilibration to causes which
have only a limited bearing on the case. The recent heavy decline in
bonds and stocks, for example, was popularly ascribed to political
and legislative action against railroads. Scarcity of money was given
second place in these deductions, and gold production third place, or
no place at all. If we reverse this order of importance and give gold
production first place, monetary affairs second place, and political
affairs third place, we are nearer the truth. It looks a little
ridiculous that the scope of intelligent perspective should be blocked
by three thousand miles of water, and that the unthinking majority
who ascribe our decline in bonds to local politics should have failed
to recognize so potent a fact as that the decline was world-wide;
but such is the case. The readjustment in bonds was due to excessive
over-production of gold, and it may be safely assumed that so long as
this over-production continues to increase rapidly, bonds will continue
low in price or, what amounts to the same thing, interest rates will
remain high.
As to the importance of a correct understanding on this subject of gold
supply and its influence on prices, I quote from Mr. Byron W. Holt’s
book “The Gold Supply and Prosperity,” which, I may add, is used as the
text book for this chapter. Mr. Holt says:
“This is the great problem that now confronts the
financial world and demands solution of every
investor. Not to solve it may mean great loss and
possible failure. To solve it means success and
greatly enhanced wealth for all who now have either a
fair share of this world’s goods or who have credit
and can intelligently go in debt for a large amount.”
As speculation or investment-speculation, as defined in the
introduction to this book, are the subjects under discussion it is the
intention to take up, in turn, such points as bear particularly upon
price changes of speculative shares and commodities influenced by our
increasing supply of gold. The main points to be considered are as
follows:
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