To reach a reasonable solution we must first examine the effect of an
unduly increasing supply of gold on commodity prices. Over-production
in any quarter inevitably leads to lower prices. Gold being a fixed
standard cannot decline in figures, but it does so in fact. That is to
say, the flexible prices of things which gold will buy rise to fill
the gap. Thus, since 1896, prices of commodities have risen 50%. The
man who loaned money ten years ago finds its purchasing power impaired
33⅓%, when it is returned to him today, for the reason that commodity
prices having advanced 50% in the interim, his dollar will now buy only
66⅔% of what it would buy in 1897. This impairment of principal will
be covered, in part at least, by interest rates. This effect, if not
recognized and arbitrary would adjust itself automatically, regardless
of whether or not investors recognize the influence of changing values
of gold, for money, finding higher returns in other quarters, would
speedily desert the long-term, fixed-interest investment field, and
prices of such securities would decline through lack of demand.
On the subject of interest rates Mr. Holt says:
“But there is another reason why interest rates
should be high when prices are rising. When money
is shrinking in value interest rates should be high
to make up, or partly make up, the losses on the
principals of loans. To illustrate: Suppose that
prices are rising 10% a year. This means that the
purchasing power of money is declining about 10% a
year. Suppose, then, that $100 were loaned for one
year at 5%. At the end of the year the lender would
have $105; but with this $105 he could buy only about
as much as he could have bought with $95, at the
beginning of the year. In reality, he has received
no interest at all but has, instead, paid $5 to the
man for holding his $100. The man with money to
loan cannot afford to do business in this way. He
is usually as wise as are his neighbors, and fully
as able to protect his own interests and to get all
his money is worth, either by buying real property,
investing in bonds and stock or by loaning on notes
or on call.”
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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