In submitting the above contentions it must be fairly stated that
there is some diversity of opinion as to the effects of gold on
interest rates. A few writers demur to the theory; others hold that
the effect is nil, and one or two openly adopt the negative side
of the discussion, and state that more money means lower rates of
interest. The majority of recent investigators, however, appear to be
accepting the theory as given herein, and it may be added that prices
of the class of securities considered have borne out the hypothesis
faithfully, and that the minority have failed to offer convincing
explanations of this readjustment. It will not do to point to the
fact that money has been fully employed in constructive rather than
investment fields of late; for while this is true enough, it does not
explain why gilt-edged bonds such as British Consols have declined
in value, while stocks and shares which did not bear the onus of
circumscribed returns have advanced. There are, of course, contributory
causes: the Labor-Socialistic Government in England no doubt affects
the prices of consols, but this influence is specific, and loses
most of its force when we consider that not only these particular
securities, but practically all others of their class the world over
have suffered a radical decline. In other words, interest rates have
grown comprehensively higher. The theory appears sound, is borne out
by events, and mere denial does not weaken it. It may well be accepted
until its opponents succeed in giving us something more convincing in
its place.
In support of the theory, Mr. Holt reproduces the following table of
British bonds from Moody’s Magazine for October, 1906.
PRICES OF BRITISH INVESTMENT BONDS.
% 1906 1905 1904 1896
British Consols 2½ 86½ 89⅛ 88½ 113⅞[1]
Met. Consols 3½ 102 104 104½ 128¾
London County 3 88½ 94½ 93 128¾
Leeds 4 108 109 111½ 130½
Liverpool 3½ 107 109 109 144¼
Manchester 4 123 128¾ 124¾ 159
New South Wales 3½ 100½ 100 96 112¼
Queensland 3½ 99½ 99 96 111½
Canada 3 98½ 100½ 97 107¼
Cape 3½ 97 98 95 120
Lon. & N. Western 3 93 96 95 124¾
Midland 2½ 76 79 78 124¾[2]
Great Western 4 123 127 123½ 164
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Average 3.3 100.2 101.8 100.9 128.4
[1] Then 2¾%.
[2] Then 3%.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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