“Thus,” comments the writer, “these 13 British bonds,
supposedly the safest and least speculative of all
securities, have declined an average of over 28
points in ten years. Considering incomes and present
prices, the unfortunate investors in these bonds have
not only received less than 1% on their investments,
during the last ten years, but, should they sell
their bonds, they would find that the proceeds have
lost 30% of the purchasing power of a similar amount
ten years ago. Altogether, they have suffered a net
loss, over incomes, of more than 20%, or over 2% a
year.”
There are other economic influences affecting interest rates through
gold supply, but the one given appears to the writer the most direct
and forcible when applied to readjustment of prices to income.
In weighing the influence of increasing gold production and its effect
upon interest rates through the advancing prices of commodities, the
student is liable to fall into one grave error. He may perhaps jump
to the conclusion that gradually advancing prices of commodities
mean gradually advancing rates of interest. This is not at all the
case. A sustained ratio of advance means sustained high rates of
interest--nothing more. In order to make this clear let us go back to
the original principle.
Increasing prices for commodities mean an impairment of the purchasing
power of money. If the purchasing power of money is impaired 2% per
annum through increasing prices of commodities, and the normal rate
of interest is 4%, we can cover the deficiency by making the interest
rate 6% _and leaving it there as long as this ratio of impairment is
maintained_. In other words the man who loans $1,000 at 6% loses $20.00
per annum in the impairment of capital and receives normal interest of
$40.00 per annum and $20 extra to cover his loss in capital. Strictly
speaking the extra 2% is not interest at all, but an amortization
payment. It matters not how high prices ultimately go, he receives each
year a bonus sufficient to cover his loss in capital, and the interest
rate remains 6%.
Therefore, if prices of commodities advanced for ten years and then
ceased to advance, but were maintained at the highest figures reached,
interest rates would fall because there would be no further impairment
of capital, and what was formerly amortization, would become usury. On
the other hand, if a new ratio of increase should occur in commodity
prices and they should advance 4% per annum, interest rates would, if
fully adjusted, reach 8%-4% for normal interest, and 4% for impairment
of capital.
_2--The effect upon Common Stocks of Railroad Corporations._
Here the effect of high interest rates is, or in time may be, offset
by returns in the form of dividends, undivided profits, improvement of
property, or the fact that income is not limited. But there is another
trouble, and a serious one, for which the gold supply is responsible.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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