been gaining rapidly in education and understanding. The fact that much
space in leading periodicals is devoted to these subjects, is in itself
_prima facie_ evidence that the people can and will learn, for with
all due credit to the editors and publishers, it is certain that the
contents of magazines and newspapers are selected in accordance with
what the public demands and likes.
No one will attempt to deny that a majority of public speculators
lose. In a former volume, the present writer undertook to establish
by analysis of a large number of public accounts, the fact that 80%
of the participators lost money. A number of critics commented on this
statement as a body blow to speculation, asserting that the writer
had shown that there was “80% against the player.” These writers
proceeded to compare this percentage with that existing in games of
pure chance, such as roulette, faro, etc., and wound up by pointing out
the tremendous drawback to the speculator through percentage against
the player. It seems incredible that any sane man should fall into such
laughable confusion of ideas. The percentage of players who lose in any
game has nothing to do with the percentage against the player. If these
critics established anything at all, it was that speculation was not
gambling; for it requires only a moment’s reflection to see that in any
mechanical gambling game where there is _any_ percentage, no matter how
small, in favor of the game, the percentage of players who eventually
lose must be 100. This being the case, the gentlemen mentioned were at
considerable pains to prove that, as 100 per cent. of the players did
not lose, speculation was not a gambling game in the strict sense of
the word. That is to say, it could not be correctly compared with any
mechanical device where the element of skill was absent.
If we consider the matter in a gambling light, the percentage against
the speculator can be determined by the proportions of commissions,
interest, taxes, etc., to capital invested. Taking commission alone as
our basis, we will find that he who purchases a stock at $100 a share
and pays one-quarter of one per cent. commission, has a percentage
against him of one-quarter of one per cent. If the speculator trades
on limited margins the drawback increases accordingly. If we assume
that 100 shares of stock are purchased in a bucket-shop on a one point
margin, without intention or ability to “re-margin” the transaction,
the mechanical percentage is large (25%); if 10 points margin is
deposited, the mechanical percentage is reduced to 2½%, etc. In the
first instance, $25 or 25% of the $100 involved was lost when the
transaction was recorded, without any change in market price. In the
second instance, $25 was again lost or 2½% of the $1,000 involved.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account