There is no doubt that fluctuations in prices of securities, cereals
and staples are frequently used as a basis for mere gambling
transactions. But the most remarkable feature of the whole problem is
the fact that the percentage of loss in transactions is _greater_ than
the mechanical percentage. In the work already mentioned, the writer
undertook to establish this. In 500 accounts examined, there was a loss
of $1,245,000, and profits of $288,000, leaving a deficit of $957,000.
The commission charges and interest amounted to only $275,000. There
thus appeared a loss of $682,000 which could not be attributed to a
gambling percentage. It may be added that the period considered in the
computations was from July, 1901, to March, 1903, and that the price of
the stock considered (U. S. Steel Common) was the same at the beginning
and the end of the period.
This tends to again refute the theory of mere gambling, with a ruinous
percentage against the player, for no mechanical device could by any
possibility operate against the player to a greater extent than the
fixed percentage in favor of the machine. A gambling machine will stick
to its knitting. If, for example, we take the simplest form of gambling
device--two dice thrown from a cup,--we know that certain numbers
formed by adding the total spots which appear uppermost will show more
frequently than others. Thus the number two can be effected in but one
way, the number three in two ways, the number four in three ways, and
so on up to the number seven, which can be formed by six different
combinations, thus:
4 and 3
5 and 2
6 and 1
3 and 4
2 and 5
1 and 6
from which point the chances decrease until the number 12 can be formed
in only one way--two sixes. This proposition applies to all forms of
mechanical gambling, and is so simple in principle, and so distinct in
operation that if we make a fair number of casts, say 1,000, and do not
make more sevens than any other one number, we may be positive that the
dice are defective, or loaded.
Therefore, if percentages hold true, we must attribute the surplus loss
in speculation to mental operations. In the total results mentioned,
these mental operations were so erroneous as to cause a loss greater
than the percentage itself; but, on the other hand, a certain number of
accounts showed profits; that is to say, the percentage was overcome,
which is again an obvious impossibility in true gambling.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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