There are two periods of the year when the stock market is affected
by disbursements of money in the form of interest and dividends. The
two dates at which heavy disbursements occur, are January 1st and
July 1st. It is a popular belief that just prior to each of these
dates, money will grow “tight” because of the necessary provisions
made by banks and other corporations to meet such payments. Following
the actual distribution of funds, it is the theory that a part of
this money will seek reinvestment in bonds and shares. A great many
speculators argue that this would naturally produce stringency, the
possible calling of loans, and consequently lower security prices in
the latter half of December and June and an advance early in January
and July. While this reasoning looks sound enough on its face, it is
not at all dependable. It is certain that everything is discounted in
advance of actual events in speculative circles, and the more widely
such theories as the one mentioned are disseminated, the more dangerous
and inoperative they become. Instances are not lacking in recent
years, where the technical situation growing out of this reasoning,
has not only nullified the theoretical action, but has resulted in
actual reversal, i.e.: an advance just preceding disbursements and a
decline at the time the distributed funds were presumably returning to
investment channels. Numerous shrewd people, anticipating an advance
in January and July, have attempted to take time by the fore-lock by
effecting purchases in December and June. Their buying, being of a
competitive character, not only carries prices upward prematurely, but
creates a weak speculative long interest, subject to disappointment if
funds do not reappear in the volume expected, or susceptible to attack
by great manipulators.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account