There is another objection to this theory of periodicity. If the market is dull and stagnant, with little public interest, it behooves the large interests which have stocks for sale to bid up prices and create activity prior to the heavy distributions of funds. They may accomplish two things by this process. They make not only a higher level of prices at which to sell their wares, but create what is of even greater importance, an appearance of activity, prosperity and a newspaper market. It is strangely illogical, but unquestionably true, that people who would flatly refuse to enter a market at a low level of prices will rush in to buy ten points higher if the factors of bustle and excitement are present. Both the doctrine of common-sense and the calculus of probabilities would establish the fact that each advance brings us nearer the top, and each decline brings us nearer the bottom; but few men can train themselves away from the idea that an upturn already established does not indicate higher prices and vice versa. It is a sort of enthusiasm which a minority understand, however, and make good use of. The psychological effect of mere excitement is one of the explanations of the incontrovertible fact that the public usually buys at high prices and sells at low prices. The acceptance of certain periods or seasons as a guide to either purchases or sales of stocks is, in the last analysis, merely a form of chart-playing. It is natural to evade a studious examination of the general business and monetary situation and to resort to a simple, albeit a superficial diagnosis, which, being insufficient and incomplete, is dangerous. It is suggested that while the double effects of contraction prior to distribution should be understood and examined, the only safe method is to go behind these temporary and periodical changes and study the whole basic structure comprehensively. We may find that money is in demand for the purpose of propping and sustaining an unsound business condition, and that it will in all probability fail to return in volume to the security markets. This occurred in January, 1907, and the believers in a “January rise,” were badly disappointed. Interest rates on money must also be given consideration. If the commercial world is striving to secure funds at a higher rate of interest than is offered on shares, money, or a good portion of it, will go where interest returns are greatest. And in this regard it may be said, that merely local interest rates are not always a good indication of money affairs in the business world. Not long ago, the writer, being suspicious of the claims of plentiful money and low rates in New York, investigated the matter through Western bankers and found that prime paper was being offered west of the Missouri River at much higher rates. This was made particularly significant by the fact that previously the borrowers had always been able to supply their needs at