While interest rates for both time and call money are frequently
fictitious, or of a temporary and artificial nature, and no set rules
can be laid down as to certain conditions in money and their immediate
effects upon security values, it is not difficult to gain a general
idea of underlying conditions. We have always at hand statistics which
will reflect faithfully the fundamental basis of the entire world
structure. But in this important division, as in most other branches of
speculation, we often find that what is really important is absolutely
ignored, while matters of little moment are harped upon, or even made
the basis of operations. Thus, every habitue of brokerage offices
eagerly watches the bank statement or the rates on call money, and
knows nothing about the expansion of credits, even when such expansion
has reached a point that would make a crisis appear inevitable. No
better proof of this can be offered than the fact that our heaviest
business and greatest inflation, have frequently gone merrily forward
for a year or more under suicidal conditions. These conditions have
sometimes been so obvious, so forcible, that it would appear impossible
to view them with equanimity. In a majority of cases they were probably
not viewed at all, and the thoughtful men who pointed out the danger
have been called calamity howlers or pessimists. There is one great
check to education in this direction: great financiers who are most
conversant with actual conditions, seldom find it expedient to point
out the facts. Sometimes they, themselves, wish to dispose of their
holdings because of the obvious peril ahead and this process would not
be facilitated by gloomy predictions. On the other hand, it is too
often the case that these same gentlemen, finding it to their great
advantage to disperse sunshine until their goods are sold, point
assiduously to the excellent business of the present, and neglect
to touch on the irrepressible future, which, after all, is the most
important question to the investor or speculator.
V
Political Influences, Crops, Etc.
The possibility of legislation adverse to corporations is always
present as a market factor, and at times severe declines have been
recorded through such action. It is not always the case that such
legislation is truly a bear factor, although it is fashionable to so
interpret anything in the nature of legislative interference with
corporate affairs. It is the writer’s opinion that a great deal of
misunderstanding has recently arisen in regard to the attitude of
certain party leaders toward the heads of great railroad corporations.
The opinion has been widely fostered by opposing politicians and others
that the credit of railroad corporations was being badly impaired, and
the interests of stockholders jeopardized because investigations were
ordered as to the methods of individuals or directorates.
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