It is the writer’s opinion, founded on the experience set forth above,
that it is much better to effect transactions in the ordinary manner,
than to depend on privileges. If “puts and calls” are dealt in at all,
they should be sold, not purchased. The insurance companies make more
money than is paid out in losses; so do the sellers of privileges. It
may be well to add, however, that the man who runs an insurance company
is in danger if he does not understand his business and his risks,
or if he enters the field without sufficient capital to provide for
possible initial losses. All this applies to the seller of privileges.
VII
The Question of Dividends
It is a certainty that the short seller of dividend-paying stocks
suffers a drawback from dividends, except in the rare cases where
interest is allowed on short stocks. If we sell short a 6% stock at par
and at the end of a year find the stock still selling at par, we have
lost 6% without adverse market action. This onus cannot be escaped by
short-time commitments; it is merely a matter of degree. The chronic
short seller is swimming constantly against the current.
There is one point about dividends which is widely misunderstood
by ordinary traders. It appears impossible to make a great many
individuals understand that short sales may be as intelligently made
the day before a stock sells “ex-dividend” as at any other time. Even
when good reasons for a decline exist, traders fight shy of “swallowing
the dividend,” or retire commitments just before dividend payment for
no other reason than that such distribution is to be made, which is, in
fact, no reason at all.
The disadvantage to the seller of stocks through the earning
capacity or increment is the same on the day or the week preceding
a disbursement as at any other time. The earnings of the company
are a steady day to day affair, and are, as they accrue, constantly
considered in the price of the stock. In other words, the prices of
listed shares are at all times “flat.” At a point midway between two
dividend days, the stock reflects in its current price half the amount
of the undistributed dividend, or other increment. For example, if a
certain stock sells normally at par and pays 6% per annum (3 per cent.
in January and 3 per cent. in July) the price of the stock in March,
eliminating speculative influences, would be 101½ and in July 103.
When on July 1st, the 3 per cent. is distributed, the amount is simply
taken away from the company and from the price of the stock also. It
now returns to its normal price, 100, and whether it will go up or down
from that point is a question for speculation. The factor which made
the price 103 has been eliminated and it remains for the corporation in
question to again earn 3% available for distribution before the next
dividend day.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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