Perhaps this point may be made clearer by assuming that a certain
stock is not handled on the “flat” basis, but is dealt in “and
interest” after the method sometimes employed in bond transactions. Let
us again eliminate speculation and take for example a stock selling
at 100 and paying 6%. Assuming that a dividend had been paid on this
stock on January 1st, the purchaser of the stock on February 1st
would pay 100 for his shares, and would also pay to the seller the
accrued dividend for one month, or ½ of 1% which is exactly the same
proposition as if the stock had been quoted flat on the Stock Exchange
at 100½. On March 1st, the purchaser would pay 100 for his shares and
1% accrued dividend or 101, etc.
It appears, therefore, that the widespread idea that it is dangerous
to sell a stock just before a dividend day is not sound. In fact, the
whole matter may be dismissed by saying that if there was any good
or logical reason for expecting a premature recovery of the price
of dividend-paying shares, or an advance founded on any reason in
connection with dividends other than the gradual accumulation from one
date of disbursement to the next, the whole problem of making profits
in Wall Street would be solved. The rule must necessarily work both
ways, and if it is dangerous to sell at certain periods, it must be,
in inverse ratio, safe to purchase. All we would need to do therefore,
would be to await the dates on which shares sold “ex-dividend” and make
purchases. Here then, is exploited a patent way of getting the best of
the market without study or effort. In truth, there is nothing whatever
in the theory any more than there would be in buying Government bonds
for a rise just after the interest had been paid on them. If good
reasons exist for sales, they may be made as confidently at one time as
another. The disadvantage of being short of dividend-paying stocks is
always present, and it cannot be escaped, but the operation is a day to
day affair not a matter of certain dates.
_Basing Railroad Values._
“The problem of railway valuation is comparatively
simple, and beyond the reach of but few. A railway is
primarily a carrier, a carter, a drayman. Obviously
then, in considering an investment, we shall ask,
What sort of a road has it? What sort of vans, and
what sort of horses? What sort of trade? A teamster
doing business on a fine level macadamized road, with
big, heavy vans, and heavy draft horse, can work at
a profit and underbid a carrier with old vans and
poor horses, working on roads of heavy grade. So,
for example, a railroad, other things being equal,
with a water grade like the New York Central, has a
tremendous advantage over an up and down grade like
that of the Erie. The Illinois Central can do
business much more cheaply than the Missouri Pacific.
A road with a magnificent equipment like the Lake
Shore can undercut a poorly equipped road like the
Nickel Plate.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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