High in High in Stock July, 1901 July, 1902 Amalgamated 124¼ 68¾ American Smelting 58 47½ American Sugar 145⅝ 134½ Anaconda 48⅞ 27 Col. Fuel & Iron. 116⅛ 102¼ National Lead 23 22¼ Tenn. Coal & Iron 72½ 69½ Rubber 21¼ 17 U. S. Steel 48⅞ 41 U. S. Steel, Pfd. 99½ 92⅛ ------- ------- Average price 75.80 62.18 “These tables show that during the fiscal year used, railroad stocks advanced an average of over 15 points, while industrials declined almost 14 points. In other words, the spread was 29 points. The man who bought rails and sold industrials would have made on the average 29 points. This exhibit entirely overthrows any argument that the market moves one way or the other homogeneously. “There was a reason for the spread illustrated above. There always is a reason. We had big crops in 1902, which helped the railroads. The industrials, on the other hand, were busily discounting the business depression of 1903. “Precedent shows that in a period of general depression Industrial stocks suffer about 33% more than rails. That is to say, in the high and low prices covering a long period, industrial securities should show a distinctly greater pro-rata of decline. Let me illustrate, using the stocks employed in the former table and covering the period of our last great cycle, 1901-02-03. As most of the high prices in rails were made in 1902, the highest prices of both 1901 and 1902 will be used, and the lowest of 1903: RAILROAD STOCKS High in Low in 1901-1902 1903 Atchison 96⅝ 54 B. & O. 118½ 71⅝ Can. Pac. 145¼ 115⅝ St. Paul 198¾ 133¼ Erie 45½ 23 L. & N. 159½ 95 Mo. Pac. 125½ 85¾ Penna 170 110¾ Reading 78½ 37½ Union Pac. 133 65¾ ------- ------- Average price 127.11 79.22 INDUSTRIAL STOCKS.