The Discovery of the FutureWells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Philosophy
The Discovery of the Future
Wells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Civilization -- Philosophy; Forecasting; History -- Philosophy; Time
And now let me remind you that this second zone of knowledge outside
the bright area of what we have felt and witnessed and handled for
ourselves--this zone of hearsay and history and tradition--completed the
whole knowledge of the past that was accessible to Shakespeare, for
example. To these limits man's knowledge of the past was absolutely
confined, save for some inklings and guesses, save for some small,
almost negligible beginnings, until the nineteenth century began.
Besides the correct knowledge in this scheme of hearsay and history
a man had a certain amount of legend and error that rounded off the
picture in a very satisfactory and misleading way, according to Bishop
Ussher, just exactly 4004 years B.C. And that was man's universal
history--that was his all--until the scientific epoch began. And beyond
those limits--? Well, I suppose the educated man of the sixteenth
century was as certain of the non-existence of anything before the
creation of the world as he was, and as most of us are still, of
the practical non-existence of the future, or at any rate he was as
satisfied of the impossibility of knowledge in the one direction as in
the other.
But modern science, that is to say the relentless systematic criticism
of phenomena, has in the past hundred years absolutely destroyed the
conception of a finitely distant beginning of things; has abolished such
limits to the past as a dated creation set, and added an enormous vista
to that limited sixteenth century outlook. And what I would insist upon
is that this further knowledge is a new kind of knowledge, obtained in
a new kind of way. We know to-day, quite as confidently and in many
respects more intimately than we know Sargon or Zenobia or Caractacus,
the form and the habits of creatures that no living being has ever met,
that no human eye has ever regarded, and the character of scenery that
no man has ever seen or can ever possibly see; we picture to ourselves
the labyrinthodon raising its clumsy head above the water of the
carboniferous swamps in which he lived, and we figure the pterodactyls,
those great bird lizards, flapping their way athwart the forests of
the Mesozoic age with exactly the same certainty as that with which we
picture the rhinoceros or the vulture. I doubt no more about the facts
in this farther picture than I do about those in the nearest. I believe
in the megatherium which I have never seen as confidently as I believe
in the hippopotamus that has engulfed buns from my hand. A vast amount
of detail in that farther picture is now fixed and finite for all time.
And a countless number of investigators are persistently and confidently
enlarging, amplifying, correcting, and pushing farther and farther
back the boundaries of this greater past--this prehuman past--that the
scientific criticism of existing phenomena has discovered and restored
and brought for the first time into the world of human thought. We have
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