The Discovery of the FutureWells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Philosophy
The Discovery of the Future
Wells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Civilization -- Philosophy; Forecasting; History -- Philosophy; Time
become possessed of a new and once unsuspected history of the world--of
which all the history that was known, for example, to Dr. Johnson is
only the brief concluding chapter; and even that concluding chapter
has been greatly enlarged and corrected by the exploring archæologists
working strictly upon the lines of the new method--that is to say, the
comparison and criticism of suggestive facts.
I want particularly to insist upon this, that all this outer past--this
non-historical past--is the product of a new and keener habit of
inquiry, and no sort of revelation. It is simply due to a new and more
critical way of looking at things. Our knowledge of the geological past,
clear and definite as it has become, is of a different and lower order
than the knowledge of our memory, and yet of a quite practicable and
trustworthy order--a knowledge good enough to go upon; and if one were
to speak of the private memory as the personal past, of the next wider
area of knowledge as the traditional or historical past, then one might
call all that great and inspiring background of remoter geological time
the inductive past.
And this great discovery of the inductive past was got by the discussion
and rediscussion and effective criticism of a number of existing
facts, odd-shaped lumps of stone, streaks and bandings in quarries
and cliffs, anatomical and developmental detail that had always been
about in the world, that had been lying at the feet of mankind so long
as mankind had existed, but that no one had ever dreamed before could
supply any information at all, much more reveal such astounding and
enlightening vistas. Looked at in a new way they became sources of
dazzling and penetrating light. The remoter past lit up and became a
picture. Considered as effects, compared and criticised, they yielded a
clairvoyant vision of the history of interminable years.
And now, if it has been possible for men by picking out a number of
suggestive and significant looking things in the present, by comparing
them, criticising them, and discussing them, with a perpetual insistence
upon "Why?" without any guiding tradition, and indeed in the teeth of
established beliefs, to construct this amazing searchlight of inference
into the remoter past, is it really, after all, such an extravagant and
hopeless thing to suggest that, by seeking for operating causes instead
of for fossils, and by criticising them as persistently and thoroughly
as the geological record has been criticised, it may be possible to
throw a searchlight of inference forward instead of backward, and
to attain to a knowledge of coming things as clear, as universally
convincing, and infinitely more important to mankind than the clear
vision of the past that geology has opened to us during the nineteenth
century?
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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