The Discovery of the FutureWells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Philosophy
The Discovery of the Future
Wells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Civilization -- Philosophy; Forecasting; History -- Philosophy; Time
But everybody does not believe in the importance of the leading man.
There are those who will say that the whole world is different by reason
of Napoleon. There are those who will say that the world of to-day
would be very much as it is now if Napoleon had never been born. Other
men would have arisen to make Napoleon's conquests and codify the law,
redistribute the worn-out boundaries of Europe and achieve all those
changes which we so readily ascribe to Napoleon's will alone. There are
those who believe entirely in the individual man and those who believe
entirely in the forces behind the individual man, and for my own part
I must confess myself a rather extreme case of the latter kind. I must
confess I believe that if by some juggling with space and time Julius
Cæsar, Napoleon, Edward IV., William the Conqueror, Lord Rosebery, and
Robert Burns had all been changed at birth it would not have produced
any serious dislocation of the course of destiny. I believe that these
great men of ours are no more than images and symbols and instruments
taken, as it were, haphazard by the incessant and consistent forces
behind them; they are the pen-nibs Fate has used for her writing, the
diamonds upon the drill that pierces through the rock. And the more
one inclines to this trust in forces the more one will believe in the
possibility of a reasoned inductive view of the future that will serve
us in politics, in morals, in social contrivances, and in a thousand
spacious ways. And even those who take the most extreme and personal
and melodramatic view of the ways of human destiny, who see life as a
tissue of fairy godmother births and accidental meetings and promises
and jealousies, will, I suppose, admit there comes a limit to these
things--that at last personality dies away and the greater forces come
to their own. The great man, however great he be, cannot set back the
whole scheme of things; what he does in right and reason will remain,
and what he does against the greater creative forces will perish. We
cannot foresee him; let us grant that. His personal difference, the
splendor of his effect, his dramatic arrangement of events will be his
own--in other words, we cannot estimate for accidents and accelerations
and delays; but if only we throw our web of generalization wide enough,
if only we spin our rope of induction strong enough, the final result of
the great man, his ultimate surviving consequences, will come within our
net.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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