The Discovery of the FutureWells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Philosophy
The Discovery of the Future
Wells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Civilization -- Philosophy; Forecasting; History -- Philosophy; Time
Such, then, is the sort of knowledge of the future that I believe is
attainable and worth attaining. I believe that the deliberate direction
of historical study and of economic and social study toward the future
and an increasing reference, a deliberate and courageous reference,
to the future in moral and religious discussion, would be enormously
stimulating and enormously profitable to our intellectual life. I have
done my best to suggest to you that such an enterprise is now a serious
and practicable undertaking. But at the risk of repetition I would call
your attention to the essential difference that must always hold between
our attainable knowledge of the future and our existing knowledge of the
past. The portion of the past that is brightest and most real to each
of us is the individual past--the personal memory. The portion of the
future that must remain darkest and least accessible is the individual
future. Scientific prophecy will not be fortune-telling, whatever else
it may be. Those excellent people who cast horoscopes, those illegal
fashionable palm-reading ladies who abound so much to-day, in whom
nobody is so foolish as to believe, and to whom everybody is foolish
enough to go, need fear no competition from the scientific prophets.
The knowledge of the future we may hope to gain will be general and not
individual; it will be no sort of knowledge that will either hamper
us in the exercise of our individual free will or relieve us of our
personal responsibility.
And now, how far is it possible at the present time to speculate on the
particular outline the future will assume when it is investigated in
this way?
It is interesting, before we answer that question, to take into account
the speculations of a certain sect and culture of people who already,
before the middle of last century, had set their faces toward the
future as the justifying explanation of the present. These were the
positivists, whose position is still most eloquently maintained and
displayed by Mr. Frederic Harrison, in spite of the great expansion of
the human outlook that has occurred since Comte.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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