The Economic Consequences of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
The Economic Consequences of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Economic history -- 1918-1945; Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects
This theme, however, must be for another pen than mine. I am mainly
concerned in what follows, not with the justice of the Treaty,--neither
with the demand for penal justice against the enemy, nor with the
obligation of contractual justice on the victor,--but with its wisdom
and with its consequences.
I propose, therefore, in this chapter to set forth baldly the principal
economic provisions of the Treaty, reserving, however, for the next my
comments on the Reparation Chapter and on Germany's capacity to meet the
payments there demanded from her.
The German economic system as it existed before the war depended on
three main factors: I. Overseas commerce as represented by her
mercantile marine, her colonies, her foreign investments, her exports,
and the overseas connections of her merchants; II. The exploitation of
her coal and iron and the industries built upon them; III. Her transport
and tariff system. Of these the first, while not the least important,
was certainly the most vulnerable. The Treaty aims at the systematic
destruction of all three, but principally of the first two.
I
(1) Germany has ceded to the Allies _all_ the vessels of her mercantile
marine exceeding 1600 tons gross, half the vessels between 1000 tons and
1600 tons, and one quarter of her trawlers and other fishing boats.[9]
The cession is comprehensive, including not only vessels flying the
German flag, but also all vessels owned by Germans but flying other
flags, and all vessels under construction as well as those afloat.[10]
Further, Germany undertakes, if required, to build for the Allies such
types of ships as they may specify up to 200,000 tons[11] annually for
five years, the value of these ships being credited to Germany against
what is due from her for Reparation.[12]
Thus the German mercantile marine is swept from the seas and cannot be
restored for many years to come on a scale adequate to meet the
requirements of her own commerce. For the present, no lines will run
from Hamburg, except such as foreign nations may find it worth while to
establish out of their surplus tonnage. Germany will have to pay to
foreigners for the carriage of her trade such charges as they may be
able to exact, and will receive only such conveniences as it may suit
them to give her. The prosperity of German ports and commerce can only
revive, it would seem, in proportion as she succeeds in bringing under
her effective influence the merchant marines of Scandinavia and of
Holland.
(2) Germany has ceded to the Allies "all her rights and titles over her
oversea possessions."[13] This cession not only applies to sovereignty
but extends on unfavorable terms to Government property, all of which,
including railways, must be surrendered without payment, while, on the
other hand, the German Government remains liable for any debt which may
have been incurred for the purchase or construction of this property, or
for the development of the colonies generally.[14]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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