The Economic Consequences of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
The Economic Consequences of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Economic history -- 1918-1945; Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects
The great events of history are often due to secular changes in the
growth of population and other fundamental economic causes, which,
escaping by their gradual character the notice of contemporary
observers, are attributed to the follies of statesmen or the fanaticism
of atheists. Thus the extraordinary occurrences of the past two years in
Russia, that vast upheaval of Society, which has overturned what seemed
most stable--religion, the basis of property, the ownership of land, as
well as forms of government and the hierarchy of classes--may owe more
to the deep influences of expanding numbers than to Lenin or to
Nicholas; and the disruptive powers of excessive national fecundity may
have played a greater part in bursting the bonds of convention than
either the power of ideas or the errors of autocracy.
II. _Organization_
The delicate organization by which these peoples lived depended partly
on factors internal to the system.
The interference of frontiers and of tariffs was reduced to a minimum,
and not far short of three hundred millions of people lived within the
three Empires of Russia, Germany, and Austria-Hungary. The various
currencies, which were all maintained on a stable basis in relation to
gold and to one another, facilitated the easy flow of capital and of
trade to an extent the full value of which we only realize now, when we
are deprived of its advantages. Over this great area there was an almost
absolute security of property and of person.
These factors of order, security, and uniformity, which Europe had never
before enjoyed over so wide and populous a territory or for so long a
period, prepared the way for the organization of that vast mechanism of
transport, coal distribution, and foreign trade which made possible an
industrial order of life in the dense urban centers of new population.
This is too well known to require detailed substantiation with figures.
But it may be illustrated by the figures for coal, which has been the
key to the industrial growth of Central Europe hardly less than of
England; the output of German coal grew from 30,000,000 tons in 1871 to
70,000,000 tons in 1890, 110,000,000 tons in 1900, and 190,000,000 tons
in 1913.
Round Germany as a central support the rest of the European economic
system grouped itself, and on the prosperity and enterprise of Germany
the prosperity of the rest of the Continent mainly depended. The
increasing pace of Germany gave her neighbors an outlet for their
products, in exchange for which the enterprise of the German merchant
supplied them with their chief requirements at a low price.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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