The Economic Consequences of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
The Economic Consequences of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Economic history -- 1918-1945; Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects
which seemed to afford one of the few obvious and certain sources for
Reparation. Much time was expended in the exploration of all possible
alternatives; but it was evident at last that, even if German exports
and saleable foreign securities had been available to a sufficient
value, they could not be liquidated in time, and that the financial
exhaustion of Germany was so complete that nothing whatever was
immediately available in substantial amounts except the gold in the
Reichsbank. Accordingly a sum exceeding $250,000,000 in all out of the
Reichsbank gold was transferred by Germany to the Allies (chiefly to the
United States, Great Britain, however, also receiving a substantial sum)
during the first six months of 1919 in payment for foodstuffs.
But this was not all. Although Germany agreed, under the first extension
of the Armistice, not to export gold without Allied permission, this
permission could not be always withheld. There were liabilities of the
Reichsbank accruing in the neighboring neutral countries, which could
not be met otherwise than in gold. The failure of the Reichsbank to meet
its liabilities would have caused a depreciation of the exchange so
injurious to Germany's credit as to react on the future prospects of
Reparation. In some cases, therefore, permission to export gold was
accorded to the Reichsbank by the Supreme Economic Council of the
Allies.
The net result of these various measures was to reduce the gold reserve
of the Reichsbank by more than half, the figures falling from
$575,000,000 to $275,000,000 in September, 1919.
It would be _possible_ under the Treaty to take the whole of this latter
sum for Reparation purposes. It amounts, however, as it is, to less
than 4 per cent of the Reichsbank's Note Issue, and the psychological
effect of its total confiscation might be expected (having regard to the
very large volume of mark notes held abroad) to destroy the exchange
value of the mark almost entirely. A sum of $25,000,000, $50,000,000, or
even $100,000,000 might be taken for a special purpose. But we may
assume that the Reparation Commission will judge it imprudent, having
regard to the reaction on their future prospects of securing payment, to
ruin the German currency system altogether, more particularly because
the French and Belgian Governments, being holders of a very large volume
of mark notes formerly circulating in the occupied or ceded territory,
have a great interest in maintaining some exchange value for the mark,
quite apart from Reparation prospects.
It follows, therefore, that no sum worth speaking of can be expected in
the form of gold or silver towards the initial payment of $5,000,000,000
due by 1921.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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