The detailed treatment which M. Poincaré gives to the problem thus
defined must be learned from his text. It is no part of my purpose to
expound, to defend or to traverse any of his special conclusions
regarding this matter. Yet I can not avoid observing that, while M.
Poincaré strictly confines his illustrations and his expressions of
opinion to those regions of science wherein, as special investigator, he
is himself most at home, the issues which he thus raises regarding the
logic of science are of even more critical importance and of more
impressive interest when one applies M. Poincaré's methods to the study
of the concepts and presuppositions of the organic and of the historical
and social sciences, than when one confines one's attention, as our
author here does, to the physical sciences. It belongs to the province
of an introduction like the present to point out, however briefly and
inadequately, that the significance of our author's ideas extends far
beyond the scope to which he chooses to confine their discussion.
The historical sciences, and in fact all those sciences such as geology,
and such as the evolutionary sciences in general, undertake theoretical
constructions which relate to past time. Hypotheses relating to the more
or less remote past stand, however, in a position which is very
interesting from the point of view of the logic of science. Directly
speaking, no such hypothesis is capable of confirmation or of
refutation, because we can not return into the past to verify by our own
experience what then happened. Yet indirectly, such hypotheses may lead
to predictions of coming experience. These latter will be subject to
control. Thus, Schliemann's confidence that the legend of Troy had a
definite historical foundation led to predictions regarding what certain
excavations would reveal. In a sense somewhat different from that which
filled Schliemann's enthusiastic mind, these predictions proved
verifiable. The result has been a considerable change in the attitude
of historians toward the legend of Troy. Geological investigation leads
to predictions regarding the order of the strata or the course of
mineral veins in a district, regarding the fossils which may be
discovered in given formations, and so on. These hypotheses are subject
to the control of experience. The various theories of evolutionary
doctrine include many hypotheses capable of confirmation and of
refutation by empirical tests. Yet, despite all such empirical control,
it still remains true that whenever a science is mainly concerned with
the remote past, whether this science be archeology, or geology, or
anthropology, or Old Testament history, the principal theoretical
constructions always include features which no appeal to present or to
accessible future experience can ever definitely test. Hence the
suspicion with which students of experimental science often regard the
theoretical constructions of their confrères of the sciences that deal
with the past.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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