that such a rate of national growth will continue. Its continuance for
so long a period would involve an increase of over forty millions
(40,000,000) between 1920 and 1930, and over fifty-five millions
(55,000,000) between 1930 and 1940. It seems more reasonable to expect
a gradual decline in the rate of increase, and that the relation
between this country and Europe will more closely approach an
equilibrium, accompanied or followed by a diminution of the force of
immigration as a factor in our national growth. Immigration in the
past has fluctuated widely. The total number of immigrants landing in
this country for the whole decade closing in 1880, was less than that
for the first five years of the present decade. To what degree the
population of the future will dwell in cities can perhaps best be
foretold by present indications in our own land, or by the conditions
prevailing in more thickly settled nations. Present indications here,
as has been pointed out, suggest a city growth more rapid than that of
the remainder of the population. Among the older nations, the
population of the British Isles may be said to resemble our own most
closely. The population of Great Britain and Ireland in 1881 was
thirty-five millions (35,000,000). More than one-tenth of this
population was contained in London alone. Such an urban population
manifestly sustains itself largely if not chiefly upon the commercial
and maritime importance of the nation containing it, and only to a
minor degree upon the community surrounding it. This condition of
existence may never be as emphatically true of the population about
the port of New York as it is of the population of London, yet it has
always been believed that the final commercial position of our nation
must be one of commanding importance. That belief compels the
inference that the great port of the nation and of the continent must
continue to attract an enormous population. That the present rate of
growth, which adds 30 per cent. to the population of New York, and
more than 40 per cent. to that of Brooklyn, in every ten years, will
endure, need not be expected. The results of a computation upon such a
basis seem incredible, since they call for a population of three
million five hundred thousand (3,500,000) in New York in 1920, and of
two million two hundred thousand (2,200,000) in Brooklyn at the same
time. But we may well believe that in the nation there will be a
gradual approach to the density of population now maintained in older
countries; that this port will hold its place as a general point of
concentration and distribution for the nation, the continent, perhaps
for the world; and that the excess of residence area in and about our
own city over the corresponding area of New York must continue to tell
in our favor, probably with increasing force.
Looking back no further than 1850, and comparing the two cities with
each other, the following table shows their numbers and rate of growth
in the successive decades:
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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