How far existing conditions may be disturbed by new means of transit
or by new works of life in New York City, no one can now tell. At
present, the broad fact is, that the whole area of Brooklyn (excepting
only the more remote parts of the Twenty-sixth Ward, the former town
of New Lots) is nearer in distance to the New York City Hall than that
part of New York City lying above One Hundred and Tenth street.
Furthermore, the residence area lying between Fifty-ninth and One
Hundred and Tenth streets in New York is not one-seventh of that lying
between lines of like distance in Kings County.
To attempt a close estimate of the future population of New York and
Brooklyn might be neither wise nor profitable. Some conception of the
general course or character of that development is the most that is
practicable. All nineteenth century progress discloses a tendency to
concentration of population. In our own country the inhabitants of
cities formed one-thirtieth of the population in 1790; one-eighth in
1850; and nine-fortieths or half way between one-fifth and one-fourth
in 1880. In this State a full one-half of the population dwelt in
cities in 1880. The proportion now is not less than three-fifths, and
is rapidly approaching, if it has not already reached, five-eighths.
The population of the Union since 1820 has increased at a rate varying
by decades from over 35 per cent. to 22.65 per cent. The lowest rate
was that of the war decade. The rate per decade since 1870 has been
more than 30 per cent. The population of the cities of New York and
Brooklyn has at all times increased more rapidly than that of the
nation. This was true even during the war decade, although the marked
falling off of their rate of growth in that decade disclosed a decided
sensitiveness to whatever influences accelerated or retarded national
growth. New York and Brooklyn, indeed, have at all times shown by
their rate and character of progress and growth that they are
reflections of the development of the nation rather than of that of
any State or locality. We may, therefore, safely say that the growth
of the united population of New York and Brooklyn hereafter, as in the
past, will depend chiefly upon the general progress of the whole
nation. How rapid this progress will continue, how great proportions
it may finally attain can only be vaguely conjectured. Lincoln's
forecast of two hundred and fifty millions of souls during the life
time of people who were in existence in 1861, would seem to have been
over-sanguine, although it was not without parallel or precedent. The
decade between 1850 and 1860, at the close of which he was speaking,
had witnessed a most rapid national growth, that is, a rate of more
than thirty-five per cent. for the whole Union. Percentages decline as
aggregates increase. The rate of thirty per cent. which has prevailed
since 1870, would not produce two hundred and fifty millions
(250,000,000) of people until after 1940. It is too much to assume
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