[10] Cd. 7860. [11] _Great Britain and the European Crisis_, No. 152. GERMANY'S SELECTED MOMENT. The past history of Germany shows that she has always made her wars at her own "selected moment," when she thought her victim was isolated or unprepared. As General von Bernhardi says in his book, _Germany and the Next Great War_: "English attempts at a rapprochement must not blind us as to the real situation. We may at most use them to delay the necessary and inevitable war until we may fairly imagine we have some prospect of success." On July 23, 1914, when Austria launched her ultimatum to Serbia, the Chancelleries of Europe were taken by surprise. Germany and Austria chose their moment well. (1) The British representatives were away from both Berlin and Belgrade. (2) M. Pashitch, the Serbian Prime Minister, and the other Ministers were away electioneering. (3) The Russian Ambassadors were absent from Vienna, Berlin and Paris, and the Russian Minister was absent from Belgrade. Indeed the Russian Ambassador at Vienna had left "for the country in consequence of reassuring explanations made to him at the (Austro-Hungarian) Ministry for Foreign Affairs."[12] (4) The President of the French Republic and the Prime Minister were out of France at Reval, on board the French Battleship "La France." (5) The Austro-Hungarian Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs had left the Capital and his presence at Ischl was constantly used by the Germans and Austrians as an excuse for not being able to get things done in time. The known facts of the crisis out of which the Great War arose and the messages of our Ambassadors suggest that Germany chose this particular time:-- (1) Calculating that Russia, if she did not fight, would be humiliated, whilst Austria--Germany's ally--would be strengthened by the conquest of Serbia; and (2) Believing that if Russia chose to fight, even if she fought with France as her ally, still it was a favourable moment. The deepening of the Kiel Canal to permit German battleships to pass from the Baltic to the North Sea was just completed. Germany had at her disposal the larger part of a huge war tax of £50,000,000, and had added enormously to her land forces. The murder of the Archduke created a pretext which roused enthusiasm for war in Austria, and there can be little doubt that Germany was ready to use this wave of popular feeling for her own ends. Germany appears to have instilled into Austria-Hungary the belief that there was small danger in coercing Serbia.[13] On the other hand, Germany aimed at thoroughly humiliating Russia and France, and appears to have calculated that if the worst came to the worst, she and Austria-Hungary would be in a position to beat them both. The German view of the European situation may be briefly set forth as follows:--