=Russia.=--Russia was passing through serious industrial troubles, which it was thought might end in revolution. =France.=--France was passing through a period of political chaos, no Government being able to hold together for more than a few weeks. And on July 13 the French had appointed a Committee to inquire and report immediately on alleged deficiencies in various defensive preparations. =Belgium.=--Belgium was beginning a re-organisation of her Army which would have gradually increased it to almost double its present strength. =Britain.=--Germany thought the Irish and general political position in Britain made it impossible for her to show a united front in foreign affairs, and that therefore she would be unable to fight. The Germans seem to have assumed that Britain would be glad incidentally to seize the chance of making money through neutrality and would repudiate her treaty obligations to Belgium and her friendship for France, and be content to see Germany ruthlessly crushing the smaller Powers of Europe. Sir Edward Grey, on July 27, 1914, telegraphed to the British Ambassador at Petrograd:--"I have been told by the Russian Ambassador that in German and Austrian circles impression prevails that in any event we would stand aside."[14] Our Ambassadors at Petrograd, (July 24, 1914), Rome, (July 29, 1914) and Paris (July 30, 1914), each stated that the Foreign Offices of Russia, Italy and France respectively thought that Germany was counting on our neutrality, while the German Foreign Minister, after war was actually declared, seemed totally unable to understand how we could go to war for what he called "a Scrap of Paper." The "Scrap of Paper" happened to be a treaty guaranteeing the neutrality of Belgium and signed by both Great Britain _and_ Germany![15] The whole case is put in a nutshell in the despatch from the British Ambassador at Vienna, dated August 1, 1914, in which he says:-- "=I agree ... that the German Ambassador at Vienna desired war from the first, and that his strong personal bias probably coloured his action here. The Russian Ambassador is convinced that the German Government also desired war from the first.... Nothing can alter the determination of Austro-Hungarian Government to proceed on their present course, if they have made up their mind with the approval of Germany.="[16] FOOTNOTES: [12] Cd. 7717, No. 18. [13] See Appendix "B." [14] _Great Britain and the European Crisis_, No. 47. [15] _Great Britain and the European Crisis_, Nos. 80, 99 and 160. [16] _Great Britain and the European Crisis_, No. 141. PEACE THWARTED BY GERMANY.