At the end of World War II, there was a grave requirement for more
information about hurricanes. Little was known except in theory about
their causes, maintenance, or the forces which determine their rate and
direction of travel. Since that time, literally thousands of flights
have been made into hurricanes and typhoons. Scientists have studied the
detailed records of these many penetrations.
We have learned a great deal in these years but by no means enough.
Herbert Riehl, a professor of meteorology at Chicago University, has
examined as large quantities of the data as any man. Recently he said,
“Our knowledge regarding the wind distribution within tropical storms
and the dynamical laws that guide the air from the outskirts to the
center of the cyclone is so deficient as to be deplorable.”
From the scientific point of view, remarks of this kind are fully
justified, but progress in the issuance of warnings is quite another
matter. Hurricane prediction for the present and the near future is an
art and not a science. Very great progress has been made in recent years
in sending out timely warnings. There are figures to show the facts. At
the beginning of this century, a hurricane causing ten million dollars
in property damage was likely to take several hundred lives. Twenty-five
years later, the average was about 160 lives. Ten years later (1936 to
1940 average) the figure had been reduced to about twenty-five and was
steadily going down. After men began flying into hurricanes, the figure
was reduced to four (1946 to 1950). This is astonishing, not only in
showing how the warnings were improving after hunting by air got
started, but also the big gains shortly before that time, especially
after the hurricane teletypewriter circuit was installed around the
coast in 1935. Experience in prediction, on-the-spot operation, and fast
communications are vital.
In fact, the record was so good at the beginning of World War II that
most forecasters despaired of their ability to keep it up. It had
consistently been below ten lives for ten million dollars’ damage and
one serious mistake could have raised this rate considerably for several
years. For this reason, as well as many others, the forecasters were
extremely grateful for the information from aircraft.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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