The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
For the purpose with which this illustration was proposed,
viz. the graphical display of the succession of digits
in any one of the incommensurable constants of arithmetic
or geometry, the above may suffice. After actually testing
some of them in this way they seem to me, so far as the eye,
or the theoretical principles to be presently mentioned, are
any guide, to answer quite fairly to the description of randomness.
16. As we are on the subject, however, it seems worth
going farther by enquiring how near we could get to the
ideal of randomness of direction. To carry this out completely
two improvements must be made. For one thing,
instead of confining ourselves to eight directions we must
admit an infinite number. This would offer no great difficulty;
for instead of employing a small number of digits we
should merely have to use some kind of circular teetotum
which would rest indifferently in any direction. But in the
next place instead of short finite steps we must suppose them
indefinitely short. It is here that the actual unattainability
makes itself felt. We are familiar enough with the device,
employed by Newton, of passing from the discontinuous
polygon to the continuous curve. But we can resort to this
device because the ideal, viz. the curve, is as easily drawn
(and, I should say, as easily conceived or pictured) as any of
the steps which lead us towards it. But in the case before
us it is otherwise. The line in question will remain discontinuous,
or rather angular, to the last: for its angles do
not tend even to lose their sharpness, though the fragments
which compose them increase in number and diminish in
magnitude without any limit. And such an ideal is not conceivable
as an ideal. It is as if we had a rough body under
the microscope, and found that as we subjected it to higher
and higher powers there was no tendency for the angles to
round themselves off. Our 'random line' must remain as
'spiky' as ever, though the size of its spikes of course
diminishes without any limit.
The case therefore seems to be this. It is easy, in words,
to indicate the conception by speaking of a line which at
every instant is as likely to take one direction as another.
It is easy moreover to draw such a line with any degree
of minuteness which we choose to demand. But it is not
possible to conceive or picture the line in its ultimate form.[6]
There is in fact no 'limit' here, intelligible to the understanding
or picturable by the imagination (corresponding to
the asymptote of a curve, or the continuous curve to the
incessantly developing polygon), towards which we find ourselves
continually approaching, and which therefore we are
apt to conceive ourselves as ultimately attaining. The usual
assumption therefore which underlies the Newtonian infinitesimal
geometry and the Differential Calculus, ceases to
apply here.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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