The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
29. So much then for the attempts, so frequently
made, to found the science on a subjective basis; they can
lead, as it has here been endeavoured to show, to no satisfactory
result. Still our belief is so inseparably connected with
our action, that something of a defence can be made for the
attempts described above; but when it is attempted, as is
often the case, to import other sentiments besides pure belief,
and to find a justification for them also in the results of our
science, the confusion becomes far worse. The following
extract from Archbishop Thomson's _Laws of Thought_ (§122,
Ed. II.) will show what kind of applications of the science are
contemplated here: "In applying the doctrine of chances to
that subject in connexion with which it was invented--games
of chance,--the principles of what has been happily termed
'moral arithmetic' must not be forgotten. Not only would
it be difficult for a gamester to find an antagonist on terms,
as to fortune and needs, precisely equal, but also it is impossible
that with such an equality the advantage of a
considerable gain should balance the harm of a serious loss.
'If two men,' says Buffon, 'were to determine to play for
their whole property, what would be the effect of this agreement?
The one would only double his fortune, and the
other reduce his to naught. What proportion is there between
the loss and the gain? The same that there is between
all and nothing. The gain of the one is but a moderate
sum,--the loss of the other is numerically infinite, and
morally so great that the labour of his whole life may not
perhaps suffice to restore his property.'"
As moral advice this is all very true and good. But if it
be regarded as a contribution to the science of the subject it
is quite inappropriate, and seems calculated to cause confusion.
The doctrine of chances pronounces upon certain
kinds of events in respect of number and magnitude; it has
absolutely nothing to do with any particular person's feelings
about these relations. We might as well append a corollary
to the rules of arithmetic, to point out that although it is
very true that twice two are four it does not follow that four,
horses will give twice as much pleasure to the owner as two
will. If two men play on equal terms their chances are
equal; in other words, if they were often to play in this
manner each would lose as frequently as he would gain. That
is all that Probability can say; what under the circumstances
may be the determination and opinions of the men in question,
it is for them and them alone to decide. There are
many persons who cannot bear mediocrity of any kind, and
to whom the prospect of doubling their fortune would outweigh
a greater chance of losing it altogether. They alone
are the judges.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account