The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
We are concerned, in these cases,
with the actions of men only, as given in statistics; with the
emotions they experience in the performance of these actions
we have no direct concern whatever. The error is the same
as if any one were to confound, in political economy, value in
use with value in exchange, and object to measuring the
value of a loaf by its cost of production, because bread is
worth more to a man when he is hungry than it is just after
his dinner.
31. One class of emotions indeed ought to be excepted,
which, from the apparent uniformity and consistency
with which they show themselves in different persons
and at different times, do really present some better claim to
consideration. In connection with a science of inference
they can never indeed be regarded as more than an accident
of what is essential to the subject, but compared with other
emotions they seem to be inseparable accidents.
The reader will remember that attention was drawn in
the earlier part of this chapter to the compound nature of
the state of mind which we term belief. It is partly intellectual,
partly also emotional; it professes to rest upon
experience, but in reality the experience acts through the
distorting media of hopes and fears and other disturbing
agencies. So long as we confine our attention to the _state
of mind_ of the person who believes, it appears to me that
these two parts of belief are quite inseparable. Indeed, to
speak of them as two parts may convey a wrong impression;
for though they spring from different sources, they so entirely
merge in one result as to produce what might be
called an indistinguishable compound. Every kind of inference,
whether in probability or not, is liable to be disturbed
in this way. A timid man may honestly believe that he will
be wounded in a coming battle, when others, with the same
experience but calmer judgments, see that the chance is
too small to deserve consideration. But such a man's belief,
if we look only to that, will not differ in its nature from
sound belief. His conduct also in consequence of his belief
will by itself afford no ground of discrimination; he will
make his will as sincerely as a man who is unmistakeably on
his death-bed. The only resource is to check and correct
his belief by appealing to past and current experience.[7] This
was advanced as an objection to the theory on which probability
is regarded as concerned primarily with laws of belief.
But on the view taken in this Essay in which we are supposed
to be concerned with laws of inference about things,
error and difficulty from this source vanish. Let us bear clearly
in mind that we are concerned with inferences about things,
and whatever there may be in belief which does not depend
on experience will disappear from notice.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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